These are heady days if you’re a Sinn Féin supporter. A few days ago, an opinion poll in the South showed Sinn Féin on 34%, Fine Gael on 24% and Fianna Fáil an 20%. Today, an Irish Times poll puts Sinn Féin on 31%, Fine Gael 27% and Fianna Fáil on 20%. The Irish Times’ Pat Leahy is emphatically positive in his response:
“Look at the way Sinn Féin has grown its support, not just among young and the working-class voters, but also – albeit to a lesser degree – among wealthier and older voters. The move to the mainstream seems inexorable.”
If you add to that the news that Sinn Féin have finally found a way to make an Irish language act a reality, something that clearly riles Edwin Poots and his DUP cabal, then it would be fair to say that Sinn Féin are on a roll. This is clearly good news for the party in the North and maybe even the South as well.
In the North, the Assembly elections are less than twelve months away. Sinn Féin and the DUP face the public with different degrees of confidence. Michelle O’Neill and her party have just cracked a major grievance: the refusal of the DUP to have hand, act or part in any Irish language bill. In screeching contrast, Edwin Poots and his party have just riven themselves down the middle. The Dodds camp have squeaked past Jeffrey Donaldson, leaving a party that looks as though it is one deeply unhappy bunny. Barring some last-minute rescue, Sinn Féin will shoulder past the DUP at next May’s Assembly election, and we’ll have as First Minister Michelle O’Neill.
As to the South, you might ask “ What’s with the ‘maybe’”? Mary Lou McDonald leads a team bursting with talent – Pearse Doherty, Eoin Ó Broin, David Cullinane and many others. There are some signs they may take the Dublin Bay South by-election in a few weeks’ time.
But the ‘maybe’ in the South refers to one difficult matter: the date of the next general election. To use a comparison from sport, when a football team like Liverpool or Manchester City has the title won with several games to go, the team again and again is surprised by defeat at the hands of weaker teams. The drive, the sense of urgency is gone, and a team that showed how to win now finds itself showing how to lose.
What I’m saying is this: it’s a long way from 2021 until 2025. There are events, dear boy, lurking in the hedgerows, ready to spring out and inflict damage at any point over the next four years. It’s heady stuff, to consider how far ahead Sinn Féin appears to be. But there are traps and assassins out there, set and primed to ruin Sinn Féin’s commanding lead. The party will have to find ways of acting rather than reacting, if it is to maintain its mighty lead.
That said, if the DUP keep Edwin Poots as their leader and Fianna Fáil keep Micheál Martin as theirs, Sinn Féin will have a markedly easier task.
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