In many ways not much has changed following the recent general election. Sinn Féin
still have 7 seats, SDLP still have 2, Alliance still has 1 and 8 seats remain in the hands
of Unionists. In 2019, the 8 Unionist seats belonged to DUP, now these seats are split
between DUP, UUP, TUV and the Independent Alex Easton.
Sinn Féin still have 7/9ths of the Nationalist share; whereas DUP now only have 5/8ths
of the Unionist block.
In terms of vote share, Sinn Féin now represent 67.2% (SF vote/Combined vote of
SF+SDLP+PBP+Aontú) of Nationalists. In 2019, the they represented 57.2%.
DUP represented 72.4% (DUP vote/Combined vote of DUP+UUP) of Unionists in the
previous general election, now they represent 51.1% (DUP vote/Combined vote of
DUP+UUP+TUV+Easton) of their community. UUP received 28.1% of Unionist vote,
while TUV attained 14.5%.
Four different branches of Unionism are now members of UK parliament; whereas Sinn
Féin and SDLP remain the only elected Irish Nationalists.
In short, this election didn’t reveal significant growth for either constitutional
preference. However, the composition of each sect has been transformed. Sinn Féin
have further consolidated their share of the Nationalist vote and are clearly the
dominant voice of Irish Unity.
Unionism on the other hand is becoming increasingly disjointed.
While Sinn Féin should be mindful of what happened the SNP in Scotland when they
adopted unpopular ‘progressive’ agendas, it doesn’t appear they’ll alienate their
Northern base anytime soon.
Recent elections in the South were a bruising experience for Sinn Féin, but in the North
as long as they’re seen to be the best placed party for advancing Irish unity one would
imagine they’ll only further consolidate their vote share.
As a voice for a Republican alternative, and for the more pragmatic inch-by-inch
approach towards Irish unity favoured by Aontú, I’d like other Republican voices to have
a fair hearing.
However, sober analysis of the election data would indicate this will be difficult. Future
elections in the North of Ireland will likely take the same shape. Irish nationalism will
largely unite behind Sinn Féin as the constitutional question becomes more dominant,
while Unionism continues to divide.
Fair play to the SF voters, and I count myself amongst them, we went and we gave the party our X. Many years ago it was claimed that the IRA leadership were implementing the long war of attrition against the British presence. So it was. I believe SF are currently in the process of carrying out the long war of political action to remove the British from our country. Things are so much different now, we now have a large number of people who are neutral regarding the national question, SF can win Irish unity by convincing those people of the benefits of unity. Immigrants, LGBTQ, they can be the ones who push us over the line, along with people who resent the way Brexit was forced on us. There will always be anti Catholic bigots who will never accept the democratic wishes of the people (no surprise there) but we have time on our side.
Yeah another Jude. Brit’s out, everyone else in? What a legacy that is, lol. I for one am glad that I didn’t vote for a party who imposed such harsh lockdown restrictions and vaccine passport mandates etc on the population, whilst flouting the rules when it suited them. I was a Sinn Fein supporter before COVID, what happened during it opened my eyes to them.
Two points spring to mind Jude.
A dominant SF is not good for winning a border poll. SF is every bit as anathema to Protestants as the DUP is to Catholics. The border poll will be decided by the pivotal political centre and many wirhin that group see the DUP and SF as the two main problem parties.
Secondly, the cultural wars divide unionists much more than nationalists. Past abuses around excessive clerical power have transformed Catholic Ireland into one of the most liberal Catholic outliers in the world, up there with Bavarian/Rhineland Catholics. Unionism is riddled down the middle and in US terms, half of pro-union voters would be Republican and half would be Democrat.