It seems to be looking good for a Liberal majority in the Canadian Federal election on polling day, Monday April 28th, with polls indicating a win for new (but as yet, never elected) Prime Minister, and Irish Canadian, Mark Carney.
His opponent, Pierre Polievre has watched a huge initial advantage and lead collapse since January, caused mainly by the Trump attacks on Canada’s sovereignty, the resignation of PM Justin Trudeau, and the rise of Mark Carney.
The latest aggregated polling today shows a narrow gap in percentage terms between the two main parties.
That might suggest a tight race but here in Canada, the Tories have a HUGE surplus vote in the Western provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan and to a lesser degree in BC). This vote does not produce any extra seats for them even if they get 60% or 70% in those provinces.
Instead, whichever party is winning dozens of seats in seat-rich Ontario, especially in the ridings (constituencies) of Greater Toronto, Ottawa, Windsor and also in la belle province Quebec, especially seat-rich Montreal, allied with a significant Liberal support in the Atlantic provinces (Newfoundland, PEI, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick) will tell the tale of a likel Liberal majority result.
A Liberal victory is my bet. But, and there’s always a caveat, polling is not voting. Despite record turnouts on the 4 advance polling dates, whichever party gets it’s supporters out best on the day, will write the story.
I’ll have more thoughts by Tuesday as our count takes place very quickly on Monday evening, as polls close at 930pm (EST) in the East, and 10pm (EST) in BC. (See below).
There is only an X on this ballot, no STV, although there are advocates for a change away from FPTP like Westminster elections, that typically reward larger parties and hurt smaller ones.
Poll Aggregation below is by 338Canada.ca
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