Should Donald Trump have gone to SpecSavers?

Trump is such a ghastly ham. A man of bulk who wears long expensive overcoats and is used to being worshipped by all his followers.

That doesn’t mean there’s no choreography when he delivers his Big Moment. As he marched into public view shortly after nine o’clock yesterday evening, he walked to a pre-agreed point, stopped, swivelled, and then marched down to the podium. Remember that time he did a similar march when he was meeting  the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un?  (That really changed a lot, didn’t it?) The same last night, the swivel, the handing of the mike to the man with the Zapata moustache, hard hat and hi-viz vest. All planned, all precise. While  Trump himself bursting with self-love and promises about tariffs and how he would be the greatest American president ever. (Pass the bucket, someone.)

So should we despair? Not  yet, at least. I’m no economist, but if you go out of your way to penalise every country in the world that does business with you, isn’t it possible those countries  – the rest of the world,  – might gang up and hit the US with enough tariffs as to make the Donald cross-eyed and dizzy?

So don’t despair. There are at least three reasons to be cheerful, although Trump appears not to have noticed these possibilities.

First, penalised countries will naturally develop alternative trade alliances to replace the US. Already the EU, China, Canada and other have signed new trade agreements, reducing their reliance on the US. Deals like the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) show that global trade can thrive without the U.S. leading the way.

Secondly, there are emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America that have already seen increased investment. Places like Vietnam, Mexico and India have relocated their production to other places than the US, and it’s boosting their economies and job markets.

Finally, the penalized-by-Trump countries will increase their focus on domestic industries. China, for example, has accelerated its efforts in technology development and self-sufficiency (where do you think all those smaller electric cars are being built?). Countries will encourage new domestic industries to emerge. It’s a bit like politics in the south of Ireland – the brazen insistence of Fianna Fail to have its prop-up group have special speaking time in the Dail has accelerated the co-operation of parties of the left.  

As the months pass, Trump will learn that there’s a big wide world out there and it’s going to do three things: get mad, get united, and encourage domestic industrial development.

Let’s see how Trump, in the coming months, likes them apples.