Since the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, a New Ireland is evolving and political attitudes are changing. There is a growing momentum for Irish reunification. All political parties especially in Dublin should be preparing for the referendum that will decide the future constitutional arrangements on the island of Ireland.
In a re-unified Ireland the Protestant/Unionist population would make up approximately 10% of the total population. The Church of Ireland (Anglican/Episcopalian) population in the 26 counties is 124,749 (2.4% of total). The Presbyterian population in the 26 counties is 23,597 (0.5%). Methodists make up 6,500 (0.12%).
The Church of Ireland and the Methodists are organised on an all-island basis. There are many smaller religious denominations and others who do not identify with any of the main churches or religious groups. Some of these are opposed to the idea of Ireland’s reunification.
In a new constitutional arrangement on an all-island basis there must be new laws to protect the minority religious population who belong to the British tradition.
The story of the unionist people belonging to the British tradition who remained in the 26 counties after Partition is worth exploring to see what can be learned about how the present British tradition in the 6 counties (almost 1 million) might adjust and profit from a new constitutional arrangement in a New Ireland. In a re-unified Ireland the total population would be 7.5 million.
Between 1911 and 1926 the Protestant/Unionist population in the 26 counties fell from 327,179 to 220,723 -that is a decrease of 32.5%.The overall population of those belonging to the British tradition in 1926 was 5.34% and remains fairly much the same today.
The present population of 26 counties is 5.46 million. The 6 county population today is approximately 1.90 million. This is 27% of the island of Ireland and 3% of the UK population. The population in the north is almost 50/50 Unionist /Nationalist.
Most pro-Union people who left in the years after Partition in 1921-22 went abroad or to the 6 counties to feel more at home with their own kith and kin. The Catholic Church hierarchy held a lot of sway at that time in the 26 counties. You can understand why many did not feel comfortable in such a state.
One reason for the exodus of Protestants from the southern border counties after Partition was the establishment of ‘The Clogher Fund’ by the Orange order. This actively encouraged “southern” Protestants to settle in Fermanagh and Tyrone, in an attempt to ‘liquidate’ the nationalist majority in those counties.
Those of the British tradition who remained in the south belonged to one of two main categories.
1. Those that took a full part in the new political structures and joined Fianna Fail, Fine Gael or Labour. Some reached high office in the state.
2. Those that remained in the southern Free state but wanted to retain their Unionist identity and culture. They did not identify entirely with the new Irish Free State and formed a number of Orange Order lodges especially in the border counties. We see their descendants today at the annual Twelfth celebration in Rossnowlagh, Co Donegal.
The leaders of the present Unionist parties in the north declare that they are totally opposed to a re-united Ireland. However, the Good Friday Agreement has already determined that the future of this Ireland will be decided by all the people on this island.
When a majority of citizens -north and south – vote in favour of ending partition, the unionist parties will be bound by that outcome. The British government will have to accept that outcome and make the necessary changes to disengage entirely from political life on the island of Ireland. That has many serious implications for the British tradition on this island.
In that scenario, Unionists will have to share power with the rest of the citizens on the island of Ireland. Just as they adjusted to the new power-sharing arrangement in the 6 counties, they will be required to adjust to the new political arrangements on the island as a whole. I am confident that most will adjust.
Such a development within the next ten years, can only be for the economic and spiritual benefit of all the people who live on the island of Ireland.
The article says, “The population in the north is almost 50/50 Unionist /Nationalist.” I don’t think we can be that sure of the figures. A rough breakdown of the 2024 General Election figures shows 40% Nationalist, 40% Unionist and 20% for Alliance and other non-aligned parties. Of course, in a constitutional referendum, people in the non-aligned 20% would be forced to come down on one side or the other. And some people in the Nationalist community would still opt for the status quo (i.e. remain within the UK).
An underlying assumption of this, and other articles, is that we are on an inevitable road to a united Ireland. And yet, no opinion poll in Northern Ireland has ever shown a majority of voters in favour of this.
The above article make reference to the declining Protestant population in Southern Ireland during the 20th century. Of course the new Free State was a cold place for Protestants (remember WB Yeats’ 1925 we are “no petty people” speech in the Irish Senate).
But the main factor for the gradual decline in the Protestant population in the South was the 1908 Ne Temere decree of the Catholic Church, requiring all children of mixed marriages to be brough up as Catholic. The decree was rigidly enforced by local Catholic priests, and filled local Protestant communities with fear and despair. The rural Protestant population dwindled, churches were closed and Church of Ireland schools amalgamated.
I always thought of the Ne Temere decree (still in force today in a re-worded format) as an astonishing act of arrogance and superiority on behalf of the Catholic Church. And it completely disregards the rights of parents and their personal conscience.
Of course the Southern Irish government had no control over the church decree – though a 1950 judgement of the Irish Supreme Court regarding custody of children in a mixed marriage did mention the Ne Temere decree in its ruling.