So the feverish scramble for Dail seats has at last begun to subside, and as the dust settles, the prophets and sooth-sayers come crowding round to examine the cooked goose’s innards for signs of things to come. Given the total hames these same ball-gazers made of tell us how things would pan out in terms of the election results, we’d do well not to attach too much significance to their claims to foresee the shape of the 32nd Dail.
But we can identify some stand-out matters that the election and post-election churnings have thrown up.
- Bertie Ahern, the man who was the embodiment of unreconstructed Fianna Fail, is tiptoeing back into the limelight, to tell us all what will happen next: ““It’ll come down to a combination that there are a group of parties, maybe two parties, but a group of parties who are prepared to support a Taoiseach. I think that will happen. That government will be a minority government clearly because it won’t have the numbers but it’ll have sufficient support from outside”. Seriously, Bertie? A minority government with support from other TDs? Wow. We certainly never would have thought of that without you. Here, take this envelope. No, no, we’re privileged to have the chance to give a dig-out to a political giant like yourself.
- In the election, Fianna Fail won too many seats. That’s to say, of course no party could get TOO many seats, but Fianna Fail have made such gains, they can’t help themselves from dreaming of the good old days when Fianna Fail was the Natural Party of Government. But to restore those glory days would mean they’d have to team up in some way with Fine Gael. And if they do that, they’re just asking for somebody to start talking about Jedward. That would be dangerous. The dream could become a nightmare, with left-wing TDs grouping around Sinn Féin and Left vs Right finally coming to southern politics. The midnight horror of it!
- Sinn Féin had a good election and a disappointing election. It was good in that they increased their total by some 50% – a tidy bottom line for any party. It was disappointing in that they had thoughts of getting a TD total in the high twenties, not the low twenties. The stand-out fumble of their campaign was in Donegal, where over-reach ended up with them getting not three but one TD elected – Pearse Doherty. The loss of Pádraig Mac Lochlainn, the other sitting TD from Donegal, really hurt. There are Sinn Féin politicians who are sound but unspectacular. Mac Lochlainn, however, is a Premier League talent, as fluent and articulate as you’ll find in the Sinn Féin pool. But as he’s already said, like Arnie, he’ll be back.
- Gerry Adams must go. Certainly if you listen to the south’s pundits and a fertilizer-smattering of them in the north as well – Adams is holding back Sinn Féin from realising its full potential in the south. Maybe it’s because they’ve necks of triple-brass, they see no irony in people who detest Sinn Féin issuing instructions to that party regarding its leadership. Yes, there were moments in the leaders’ debate when the Sinn Féin president didn’t reel off the numbers with the computer-like precision of Pearse Doherty. But against that set the lines of people which formed everywhere he went, in search of a selfie or a handshake. It shouldn’t need repeating: Gerry Adams guided Sinn Féin from Ground Zero to its present position as the biggest political party in Ireland. What’s more he did so in the teeth of a tempest of abuse and accusations from people who would need an interview before being hired to scrub his rubber duck. Indeed, the day will come when Gerry Adams will go. But when he does, Sinn Féin and Irish politics will be immeasurably poorer.
Is people wanting to get their pic taken with Gerry based on the fact they think he’s the next messiah of Irish politics or is it because he’s perceived as some macabre figurehead? Like Frankenstein has just wandered into town and everyone wants a selfie to show how they got their picture taken with a world famous, semi-sinister weirdo.
Now that’s what I call a thoughtful comment, KC
I appreciate that it’s meant to be ironic but have you considered dispensing with that photo of Enda and yourself.?Surely there’s a photo of Gerry and you which would be more appropriate given your obvious admiration for the man.
Ha haa – Argie, I can’t believe you’re telling me who I should have my pic with…Are you suggesting Enda isn’t a fine figure of a Mayo man? And do you only have YOUR pic taken with the people you most admire??
Gerry will go down in history as one of Irelands greatest ever people KC.
Wouldn’t it be great if he was elected president of Ireland in a few years time?
Even better if the Irish citizens in the north east were also able to vote for our president in 2018.
Fine Gael have a clear majority, so supporting any smaller party would be electoral suicide for them.
If Fianna Fail go into coalition with Fine Gael, not only will they be breaking promises, but they be highly likely to face multiple defections, possibly more will go into Sinn Fein following others who have gone before them already.
How many independents will sacrifice their TD to prop up a Fine Gael minority government?
The majority that do, will never be re-elected as independents, a small number such as Michael Lowry may prove the exception for obvious reasons.
So what would be in it for Fianna Fail to allow this arrangement to stand.
It will have to be something good for them to see it to their own supporters or it what would the point in voting for them be?
Water charges is the obvious though both sides have entrenched their views.
If Fine Gael acquiesce on water charges and the national utility which was theirs and Labours 5 year project, it would be admitting they made a major mistake while in government and they would take the full blame of a very divisive and unpopular tax.
My own opinion is that not only should it be scrapped but written off. All moneys paid must be repaid to the public and any criminal charges for non payment dropped.
Forcing them to do this would allow Fianna Fail to take more support from them and as they will have the trigger to call an election at any given point, they would have a gun at the head of Fine Gael for the duration of their term as a minority government and it would offer them the control of choosing the date of the next election which could be at any point in time going forward.
The problem for Fianna Fail is they also support water changes and only want a deferral and no previous bills issued dropped which could result in criminal charges over a criminal tax.
What Fine Gael on the other hand will need to do is get as much support as possible and make an agreement with Fianna Fail in the presence of the President who will then remove the gun from Fianna Fail for the agreed minimum period. The President can over rule the Dail and give a minority government stability if it is in the best interests of the people.
This will prevent Sinn Fein from being the largest party in opposition but it will be down to how good an agreement Fianna Fail can squeeze out of Fine Gael.
Another issue for Fine Gael will be that the electorate clearly voted out the last government and while they will want Labours 7 TDs to support them, how will they get that support without returning the ousted government. Perhaps give them the obvious things that Fianna Fail will clearly want first, to take the shine off Fianna Fail perhaps.
We are in the realms of gamesmanship now more than ever
The best thing to come out of this election is the fact there are now three potentials in every future election, not two and that one of the potentials is a true all island party.
For Sinn Fein, the only way is up.
Can either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael really afford to stay out of all island politics?
That will be the next issue for them both when the immediate issues are sorted.
I remember a newspaper advertising executive boasting once that the only purpose of news in a newspaper was to fill the space between the advertisements.
The return, temporary of course, of have-beens like Bertie Ahern, Michael McDowell and Alan Dukes performs a similar function.
You make the point, Jude, that a decision to form a FF/FG coalition would stand comparison with Edward. Very unfair of you, as Jedward have never bankrupted the country, collected stuffed brown envelopes or lied to the people who voted for them.
On Gerry Adams’ eventual political demise, these cerebral forecasters know that some year in the future the story will be true.
The spirit of the fleetingly famed and fabulously named LaVerne Baker , Esteemed Blogmeister, hovers over the political horse trading which currently prevails in the Free Southern Stateen.
Missy LaVerne truly had a way with names. Early on in her brief but brilliant career she was known as Little Miss Sharecropper while towards the end of her stint as a popular songbird she married a comedian and became known as (gulp) Mrs. Slappy White.
Her relevance to the topic du jour was her first and biggest hit which she recorded in 1956:
-Tweedlee Dee.
That relevance is obvious and needs no elaboration for your sophisticated following, EB. Even as they watch the two remaining amigos on their respective mounts bray the days away in a media-stoked game of Let’s Pretend our core values will Never Bend.
Call the FG mount a dunkey, call the FF mount a donkey. That’s how different from each other these two hale and sweethearty parties actually are.
Tweedlee tweedlee tweedlee dum
You’re as sweet as bubble gum
Mercy mercy pudding pie
You’ve got something money can buy.
Back in 1956, hit toons were recorded and released as 78 rpm vinyl records. In the wireless stations of the nations the Disc Jockeys would then begin to spin them on their turntables, after, of course, the necessary consideration (which is English for payola) had been safely deposited in the surprisingly voluminous back-pockets. And continue to spin and spin and spin them till they had been doctored into a healthy position in the charts.
Tweedlee tweedlee dum was the brainchild of the wunnerful and anything but dumb Winfield Scott who went on to pen an eerily prophetic popsong some time later. This he did in collaboration with the legendary lotus-eating Otis Blackwell.
-Return to Sender.
That was skillfully cobbled together specifically for the King. Needless to say, EB, your sophisticated readership, EB, will quickly spotify that the King then is the Kingmaker / Elecotrate now. Already the mediacrity are confidently predicting GE 2016, the Re-make. The next time to coincide with a real historical event really worthwhile celebrating: the Mud and Bloodbath of the Somme or some such thingy.
One of the sticky, oops, sticking points of the ongoing negotiations is the namechange issue, which could be a gamechanger, according to the blognoscenti.
-FG / GG and FF / GG.
Though The Perkin modestly begs to differ on this major issue which could be downgraded to a minor issue in the following way.
Would the merger, erm, emerge as the Fine Failure Party or the Fianna Gael Party? Even then, some will argue, there are added technicalities, as it were, to be sorted out. While there no problems with the phonetic s of Failure a different situation obtains with ‘Gael’.
One of the most frequently featured faces of Fine Gael is the unelected and quite possibly unelectable, Fwank Fwannewy. While he describes himself as a stwategist he never speaks of his beloved party as anything other than:
-Fine Gwale.
(Incidentally, he is a brother of Father Fwannewy the dissident priest who was silenced by the vulture funded Vatican. As a result of which silencing he has been sounding off with almost the same frequency on the high-frequency RTE as his Fine Gwale brother.)
Given that the Doll’s House Reform is a crucial ochone of contention there would be no problem with the aps of the two partitionist parties, i.e., F.F./ G.G. and F.G. / G.G.. As the second G. in the first instance stands for Gang and the second G. in the second instance, stands for Glennane these facts alone ensure their retention.
After all, it a verifiable historical fact that the peace-oriented Glennane Gang was instrumental in promoting the Reform of the Doll’s House. (See under craftily timed car bombs, Emergency Legislation and the caving in of the Opposition Benches ).
Serendipitously, in the milk and watery world south of the Black Sow’s Dyke another major stumbling block at this moment in time going f., is the on-flowing Hibernian H 2 0 thingy. Is water a human right or is it not?
-Water, water every where, point out one group.
-And not a buckstop in sync , rejoin the opposing group.
Or, rather the perceived major stumbling block. For, it provides a solution to the naming problem. On tap, as it were.
-U.F.F.
This acronym would have the twin benefits of (1) both omitting the unwieldy G.G. ap, while retaining the spirit of the ap and (2) incorporating the rotating T-shock T-shirt suggestion.
-Uisce Fiasco F.
(The second F.could be Fine on the front of the rotating T-shock T-shirt while Fianna could be on the back of the rotating T-shock T-shirt. Or, indeed, versa vice).
Tweedlee tweedlee tweedle doe
I’m a lucky so-and-so
Hubba hubba honey dew
I’m gonna keep my eye on you.
© LaVerne Baker and the Doll House Doughboys.
I was reading Gerry Adams blog this morning. In it he said Sinn Fein had a very good election, overall they increased their TD’s by 65%, upped their vote all over the South and came very close in gaining more TD’s but just came in short of a couple of hundred votes in places where they had zero chance of getting a TD this time 10 years ago. I personally thought Sinn Fein would get 27 TD’s but 23 isn’t bad.
If that’s a “disappointing” election then I’m sure the most hateful, bitter anti-Shinner would hate to see what a good Sinn Fein election result is. Eye balls of DUP politicians would burst at the sight of Gerry Adams as Taoiseach. Poor Ruth Dudley Edwards would be rushed to intensive care with the shock. But yet….that may just happen at the next election, if Sinn Fein play their cards right. It isn’t a dream, it isn’t wishful thinking, its very, very real possibility, some would even say its likely.
Alan Shatter, the former Fine Gael TD and Justice Minister, said if Fianna Fail and Fine Gael go into coalition then Sinn Fein will be the Irish Government at the next election.
The Eurozone crisis isn’t resolved, there’s no way Greece (or Ireland) can repay its debts while within the Eurozone. Another financial crisis is on its way and whoever is in Government, like Fianna Fail was in 2008, certainly don’t want to be when that economic hurricane comes. This provides even more priceless opportunities for Sinn Fein.
The major issue facing Sinn Fein isn’t Fine Gael or even Fianna Fail, its the extreme bias from the media. This negative media bias has very little effect on them in the North because we are well aware of how crooked the media can be but the people of the South are less aware. Gerry Adams himself said in his blog that SF would’ve got more seats if it weren’t for this extreme and constant negative bias. Sinn Fein need to find a way of combatting this negative campaign from certain newspapers/reporters/journalists. It wont be easy but when there’s a Will there’s a Way. (And no, ditching Gerry Adams wouldn’t help, the media campaign would just go on).
PS: Ann Travers and others have been in the papers recently voicing their “sadness” at Sinn Fein doing so well. Its actually got to the point they aren’t hiding their agenda of trying to stop the progress of Sinn Fein. Unionist newspapers like the Newsletter, the Irish Independent, etc have all lapped up these stories. What I’m more interested in is who is pulling the strings behind Ann Travers , Mairia Cahill, etc if there is anyone using them.
PPS: Ann sees no hypocrisy in standing with the likes of Jim Allister, who refused to discipline a TUV member for campaigning for the release of a Loyalist paramilitary whom I believe was involved in the Greysteel Massacre. Not to mention there’s TUV members that were involved in Loyalist paramilitaries, one even held a gun to a Catholic Taxi drivers head and demanded to know his religion. Again, not to mention Jim’s glorifying of the RUC/UDR and we all know about the collusion they were involved in.
Ryan, there is no major issue facing Sinn Fein. They should continue doing what they are doing and not pay any heed to the nonsense.
That is bringing in more new young talented people from all over the country who want Ireland to be a country to be proud off, who want to support their constituency to the best of their ability, who are prepared to work hard at a constituency level, who want to be part of a progressive and fair government in the coming years.
Issues are regaining losses in Donegal and establishing the party in every single constituency in Ireland, north and south.
Do that and the be grudgers will end up with egg on their face and they know it well.
The Irish people are not fools.
re: “The major issue facing Sinn Fein isn’t Fine Gael or even Fianna Fail, its the extreme bias from the media.”
See here for a full analysis of media trends during the election period https://medium.com/@beyourownreason/analysing-the-media-coverage-of-the-irish-general-election-e9425f6cf07f#.zb9bshcla
Boil water notices have been issued to residents in Connemara. Does anybody care? Few politicians are knocking on the doors in the west of the country. Ministers are too busy attempting to establish if they have any flexible friends left. Mr Kenny is threatening to go to the country, however, he has not clarified which country. Now it is all about what is best for the party, not what is best for the people. Elected representatives should take note about the fact that voter turnout was 65.1%, down four percentage points from 2011. There is a major problem when approximately one third of the population in 26 counties failed to cast votes in 2016. Partition was ignored by most of the politicians prior to the election. It will take more than spin and rotating taoisigh to heal the deep divisions in the country. Power sharing appears to be out of the question in right wing parties.
I’ve said in the past that Adams is box office and box office he remains. There’s no way Mary Lou or Pearse Doherty keep SF on the front pages of Irish politics.
Adams guarantees a public recognition and standing that no other SFer comes close to holding.