According to statistics in the north, the electorate among traditionally Irish population has increased and the traditionally unionist / British population has decreased. At the same time, the passion for a united Ireland has decreased dramatically throughout the whole of this island and is lower in 2016 than I can recall at any point in my life.
There are no noises from Dublin whatsoever on the issue. Unionism is focussed totally on the same old sectarian lines (although with a woman’s touch to soften it around the edges) which has resulted in possibly the most successful DUP elections ever, based on the total number of votes they had available to them.
The fact that Sinn Fein are an all island party will pretty much guarantee they retain a growing majority of the Irish votes, something the SDLP still haven’t learned, we are not post nationalists, we are just Irish.
But this also causes additional difficulties for Sinn Fein.
They cannot simply play the same sectarian cards as used by the DUP as this would have negative impact in the southern elections which are in many ways more important in terms of all island reconciliation and Irish unity.
The DUP know this, and have given many a bloody nose to which Sinn Fein cannot hit back and somehow they have managed to show more patience and control than I have ever seen in any political party ever. Add to this, the most hate filled and blatantly biased media attacks I have ever witnessed in my life during the southern elections, all levied at Sinn Fein and republicans making them the sole cause of the conflict and all of the problems in the north.
This has to have been a major turn off for Irish citizens in the north wanting anything to do with a united Ireland.
Now, in times of austerity, when 2 right wing parties both supporting water charges no less, win the vast majority of votes over the only other left wing party in a position to lead the Dail and which supported the dropping of water charges, then it can only be seen as fear of unity at this time. Now, that could be down to misinformation over the costs and polls suggesting there would be extra taxes and hurt to the pockets but it was in my eyes an anti-unity vote from the people in southern Ireland.
We only need to look at the scare tactics being used in the Brexit vote.
I had decided not to participate feeling I would be a hypocrite to desire Ireland to be out of the UK while at the same time interfere with a decision for the British people. Now I am also not so sure.
In conversation, a lot of people also long term Sinn Fein supporters have said to me they want to vote no.
Mainly over immigration and degrading health services over it, which I also am sick off to be honest.
Britain would be better off out of Europe, I firmly believe Europe is at risk of collapse if it tried to compete against the UK and needs the UK more than the UK needs it.
So we would have tighter border controls in Ireland. So what, this will be no more than an inconvenience to those in the south and will keep out more immigrants?
Dublin has shown no interest in Irish unity, why should border controls make any difference?
Would Irish citizens in the north be better off economically with a brexit, I believe yes, most definitely.
The EU is having less choice but to open its borders to Turkey and Germany has over exerted itself with the acceptance of far too many immigrants, something it should have known better than to do from its own history.
The EU will struggle in 2017 to survive with the UK. It will be on the brink of collapse without it.
I believe my preference deep down would be for the UK to leave and Ireland to follow suit with a new all Ireland arrangement within the British Isles including a more independent Scotland.
I always believed that a person should vote. I never understood what not voting achieved. Some people say it’s to show unhappiness with the choices or is some kind of protest. I never got that though, how do you tell who’s protesting and who’s just not bothered.
The only reason to not vote is if you have not enough understanding on the subject to make an informed choice.
EU is such a complicated issue I reckon a lot of people will just vote remain as they will keep the status quo.
I try hard to keep myself informed on things but truth is I haven’t got a clue if it would be better in or out of the EU. I don’t think anyone does.
“The only reason to not vote is if you have not enough understanding on the subject to make an informed choice.”
Do we ever have enough information to truly make an informed choice though Scott?
You think you would be persecuted for being a protestant in a united Ireland just like you believe the drop in number post partition was down to persecution.
I believe unionism will revert to violence as soon as elections go against them and Irish independence nears.
None of the parties expecting our votes care enough to talk about it. Can we really say we are making informed choices?
“I try hard to keep myself informed on things but truth is I haven’t got a clue if it would be better in or out of the EU. I don’t think anyone does.”
On the EU, there are no guarantees either way I suppose.
All we will get is opinions imposed on us by those with most to lose, the global corporates who finance the nations in question.
I will probably just keep out of it.
The usual excellently well developed article Jessica, and I am in some agreement on the leaving the EU for our neighbours, always being more in favour of the old Economic Community idea, that removed the ‘border checks’ of old.
The potential the brit’s shall exit the EU is in my opinion overplayed by media here but, if they did, taking the occupied portion with them, I doubt it would create the difficulties of ‘cross border’ issues for Irish citizens or brit’s since, there has been a longer standing Common Travel Area between both states, this would obtain and while, ’til the brit’s negoiated themselves into a free trade zone, some checks on less free movement of goods would be imposed, once Brussels, aka, Berlin approved a new deal, we’d all happily be back to pre June 23rd.
I used to frequently be arguing with GNIB officers demanding my Passport, unknowing that under the legislation they can use to detain non-nationals, does not apply to nationals, the matter was subject to some clarification recently by Mr. Justice Horgan in the Pachero case, ourselves, and our neighbours can freely travel, visa free, throughout Ireland, non-nationals, the ten’s of thousands of europeans living in the thirty two counties as well as the non europeans, will be subject to visa checks if the brit’s did go next month.
On the economic side would we be better off, probably, especially having a border with our own country, within the EU and we having a 12.5 per cent corporation tax rate cheaper workforce, facilities etc.
The other, perhaps overlooked matter is, Irish Passports, there are thousands of folk in this part of our country who have brit Passports, now, if they had to apply for travel documents to go on their fortnight break in Spain/Greece/Italy etc. I suspect they may prefer to obtain their Passport from Molesworth St. rather than Britain, unlikely they would vote to rejoin the EU through re-unification but, thon’s a debate for another day.
The down side could also be economic, it may be that access to free trade with the rest of the world is not all it’s cracked up to be, but, then again, the deregulation of financial services, imposed in 1999 and 2004 by Brussels could be further undermined by the Tories seeking to rebuild britain so leading to a greater economic crash/depression than the last/present one.
“The potential the brit’s shall exit the EU is in my opinion overplayed by media here”
I agree Mark, I am expecting a blitzkrieg of economic health warnings about how the cost of everything will go up, home prices go down, fuel prices soar, and how 7 plagues will be sent from heaven that will totally frighten the life out of enough people to get stay across the line.
The EUs biggest issues ironically are the fall out of the decisions by the US and UK to start conflicts and their militaristic interference in the middle east which has resulted in the humanitarian crisis there.
The EU doesn’t seem too stable to me at the moment. The rise of the far right in many countries including France, Germany and Austria is not even triggering any alarms and some think it is actually offering stability from the previous wars.
It looks to me like another powderkeg has been put on the fire and gunpowder is pouring in.
Lets hope i’m reading it totally wrong.
“I suspect they may prefer to obtain their Passport from Molesworth St. rather than Britain, unlikely they would vote to rejoin the EU through re-unification but, thon’s a debate for another day”
Well, the DUP support out and they listen to their supporters on the ground.
Sinn Fein and every single Irish party say stay, but other than it will have the biggest impact in Ireland if Britain leaves, I am none the wiser as to why this would be.
Ok, there is a billion pounds per week trade with England. I sincerely doubt this would change post brexit, even if the EU wanted it to.
The relationship with Ireland as you say has existed before the EU and the fact they occupy part of Ireland (sorry, I don’t know what other way to put it MT but will try and come up with an alternative that fits with how I feel about it but is less upsetting to you), might be a good reason to argue this relationship remains should the EU object to it.
I imagine trade with the rest of the world with the UK would do likewise and same rules would continue while the new arrangements are negotiated which could well be better than they were through the EU.
If the EU tried to make the standard WTO regulations apply to Ireland, then would Dublin acquiesce or fight it?
If the EU stick to their guns, would Dublin they do the Irish thing and setup a front in the north and use this to divert trade through, leave the EU or take the hit and comply with the EU?
Charley Haughey would have been the man for the job to get around that one.
I am also wondering why there has been such little interest in the north on the border issue, and is it partly because they want this sorted first and if so, is that fair to the many people in the north for whom the issue is core?
How does Ireland truly feel about the immigration issue and is it having an impact on public services there? It certainly is in the north, a greater impact that in GB. Waiting times in London are a fraction of what they are here.
There has been zero debate on the relationship Ireland wants with itself, should we expect some debate in Ireland on the consequences to us of brexit or as is the growing trend, will be simply told this is in our best interests, vote this way and stop asking awkward questions.
Will the election of Norbert Hofer, of the Freedom Party in Austria be the first domino in the break down of the EU or lead to popular reform that would be in everyone’s benefit and make the EU more appealing.
I certainly don’t agree with Harry about enriching the bloodstock or that a mongrel cultural diversity is a good thing.
How many of our people do feel this way?
I don’t feel that Irish Unity is on the back burner, I simply believe that nationalists are distracted by other issues, which dissidents call “normalisation”, hence why they still plant bombs simply to remind us this state is unnatural. There’s no doubt this is one of the bad aspects of Sinn Fein sitting in Stormont (as planned by Westminster). Stormont & the GFA wont last forever, a blind man and his dog can see that because Sinn Fein simply aren’t delivering what they promised and hence their vote fell. I just hope Gerry/Marty has the intelligence to realize this and does something about it. Playing Junior Partner to the DUP isn’t appealing to most Republicans and the impression is growing on me (and others) that Stormont is simply “Jobs for the Boys” for SF and the DUP.
On the topic of the EU and Brexit, I think (and hope) the UK votes to leave the EU but, for Irish Unity purposes, I hope the North, Scotland and Wales votes to stay but England will be the main decider, obviously because they have a population of 50 million. The UK is heading into a Federation but if Scotland is forced to leave the EU then there’s a big likelihood that Scotland will achieve Independence, hence a break up of the UK and Irish Unity. Have you read Irish economist David McWilliams recent article on Irish Unity happening a lot sooner than we thought? I’ll put a link in case you haven’t. If the UK did leave the EU, there’s no way they can control their borders because migrants can just cross from the ROI into NI and then on to Britain. This will make Irish Unity make more sense for the UK.
You mentioned the migrant crisis in Europe. Yes that is a massive problem, its actually one big powder keg waiting to go off. There is a strong possibility that Europe could be in a civil war in a decade or 2 due to this crazy multicultural project. Its important to bear in mind the EU aren’t even enforcing their own laws here. This label that all the migrants are poor “refugees” is exposed by the fact all of them are bypassing multiple safe countries from Turkey to Greece to Hungary, etc just to get to Germany and Sweden. Why? well Germany and Sweden offer high benefits. Of course anyone who disagrees with multiculturalism is called a “racist” but that’s just used to silence people, but it wont silence me.
I disagree with you on people in the South not wanting Irish Unity Jessica. Poll after poll since the heart of the troubles to this day has shown massive support for Irish Unity. So this bluntly contradicts what your saying, the most recent one was in 2012 and it showed 65% in South supported Irish Unity, 20% opposed it (a decline) and the rest “Don’t know”.
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/05/16/daily-note-a-nation-once-again-dont-write-it-off
“I don’t feel that Irish Unity is on the back burner, I simply believe that nationalists are distracted by other issues, which dissidents call “normalisation”, hence why they still plant bombs simply to remind us this state is unnatural.”
Personally, I don’t need no dissident actions to know this state is unnatural.
I still think a lot of dissident activity is for their own individual aspirations, usually making money out of crime and not a lot more.
If Dublin would show some interest and assure the people in those communities that they are not forgotten or abandoned, then I am sure it would be much harder for dissidents to take advantage of the political apathy.
“Of course anyone who disagrees with multiculturalism is called a “racist” but that’s just used to silence people, but it wont silence me.”
I don’t so much mind multiculturalism, and would be all for it in fact, it is the sheer volume that pisses me off. If that makes me a racist then a racist I will happily be,
“I disagree with you on people in the South not wanting Irish Unity Jessica. Poll after poll since the heart of the troubles to this day has shown massive support for Irish Unity. So this bluntly contradicts what your saying”
Well, there is a proven increase in the Irish electorate and at the same time a big decrease in the percentage who vote.
Perhaps polls are no longer enough and it is time they made their opinions more clearly known and gave some leadership to citizens who are supposedly part of the Irish nation.
Give us some hope that there is something worth voting for coming down the road.
Is that too much to ask for?
“You think you would be persecuted for being a protestant in a united Ireland just like you believe the drop in number post partition was down to persecution.”
I never said that I believe Protestant would be persecuted if a United Ireland happened today. That’s simply false
I believe there was persecution back between 1916-1920’s which caused a big drop in unionist numbers in the south
re- persecution of protestants in the republic of ireland causing a big drop in Unionist numbers in the south.
Scott – have you ever thought that many of those Unionists had jobs with the british administration and when that and their jobs ended in ireland, they might have preferred to transfer to England with their families? Thus causing a big drop in Unionist numbers in the south
That the republic of ireland has had several protestant presidents- (for example the founder of the Gaelic League and first President of Ireland was protestant Douglas Hyde)
of course, in times of strife when a nation was fighting for its independence, individual episodes could well have occurred, personal quarrels could have been dealt with, perceived wrongs righted,mistakes made,accidents could have happened – but not ever on a scale to justify the word “persecution”
“I believe there was persecution back between 1916-1920’s which caused a big drop in unionist numbers in the south”
Is that true though, was there a decline due to persecution ?
Am ghobsmacht knows a lot about such things, I would take his word, he knows a lot more about it than I do.
The Law of Unintended Consequences: What if by voting to leave (but wanting to stay) our Scottish Cousins decide to hold another independence referendum thus leading to the inevitable break up of the UK. Thus forcing each region to finally face up to the fact that an All Island approach to Unity is in all our best interests. I have no doubt that the UK as a whole may be better off economically, but NI within that UK is a total basket case and would suffer. Standards may rise, but it is the gap to the wealthiest regions that makes us suffer on a more proportional basis, falling even further behind GB. By every measure of economic performance, NI consistently comes last within the regions of the UK. Tell me again why we are better off being part of the 6th largest economy in the world? Vote No to ultimately remain within the EU
“Thus forcing each region to finally face up to the fact that an All Island approach to Unity is in all our best interests.”
I don’t think England ever denied that an all island economy was in our best interests. They never wanted partition, they just didn’t have the will to deal with unionist militancy which they could have nipped in the bud and prevented the gun ever entering Irish politics to begin with.
The GFA allows them to wash their hands off us, a position Dublin fancy as well which pisses me off. They should know better.
I will vote yes for a variety of reasons, firstly because if people like Dodds are against it there must be something to it. Ditto Boris Johnson. Also, it weakens British sovereignty in Ireland and I would much rather be ruled from Brussels than London. The political establishment in the free state is a dead loss, they have never wanted the nationalists of the six counties, they turned their backs on us and to be honest we don`t need them. A new Ireland will never mean an extension of the Dublin government, it will be a new beginning. As for voting, I would crawl over broken glass to cast my vote. I even voted back in 1986 after the unionists resigned en masse, even though I simply wrote a bunch of pro republican messages on my ballot paper as no nationalists stood, it felt good. A lot of young people in particular are not taking part in the electoral process here, probably because it does not have the same sense of excitement as it did for my generation, which is not a bad thing. One of my earliest candidates was a prisoner in Long Kesh. The DUP will rally their voters with a `band` and a bunch of ignorant oafs, or use scare tactics about Martin McGuinness being the First Minister as Arlene did recently.
“I will vote yes for a variety of reasons, firstly because if people like Dodds are against it there must be something to it. Ditto Boris Johnson.”
It would be very good for England in the mid term, it would widen the gulf between England and the rest of the nations within the UK.
Unionists cant see past the fact 6 counties is not a feasible economy and are happy to make do with England’s scraps.
A 32 county economy would just like a brexit, have a short term pain but would in the mid term allow Ireland to grow beyond where it could achieve with partition.
Ireland will never reach its potential while divided.
At the very least, we need to unite at least 9 counties as the other 3 are not benefitting within ROI and I believe the economy in the north is going to grow for the foreseeable future.
We have to believe that and make it happen or we are denying our nation and our children a future on this island.