Did Mike Nesbitt check with the SDLP before making his ‘We’re walking’ announcement last week? I suspect not, which is why the SDLP are feeling as surprised as the rest of us and ten times as worried.
Nobody saw Nesbitt’s leap coming, which tells you how worthwhile all those TV wiseacres on telly and in the papers are. Everyone assumed that the chance of taking a ministerial position and the status that goes with it would be enough to tether Mike and chums to the Executive. Not so, it seems. So why did he do it?
Because he wants to survive. If being a junior party in government should carry a health warning, being a junior member in the ranks of unionism is to risk being eaten alive. And that’s what the Ulster Unionists were faced with. They’d done all the right things – got themselves an articulate, seemingly-intelligent leader, leaned to the right of the DUP in the hope of catching the votes of those disillusioned with the post-Paisley party; leaned to the left to catch the votes of those disillusioned with the inability of working-class unionism to produce a political force.
But none of it has worked. The UUP went into the election with a spring in its step; it emerged from the election with a black eye and two seats snatched from its grasp. When you’re up against the wall, you’ll do anything that might save your skin. And so Mike has gone into opposition.
Which is terribly hard on the SDLP. All along they’ve been arguing that they are entitled to lambast the Executive of which they are part. Now the UUP has effectively said “No you can’t. If you’re agin the Executive, get out of the tent and see what you can do. Being inside is to ask for annihilation.”
Colum Eastwood and his colleagues have a sneaking suspicion that Mike is right. Unfortunately they’ve also got a sneaking suspicion that to move into official Opposition would worsen their situation. They’ll still have the right to gripe, but they’ve had that all along and have exercised it. The difference now is, if they go into Opposition, they’ll be griping from a position of powerlessness. Worse still, it’ll look as though the UUP bounced them into Opposition, thus showing that they can’t handle the weaker leg of unionism, let along the big DUP boot of unionism.
What should they do? If they cared about nationalism, they’d do the unthinkable and merge with Sinn Féin, thus bringing a united nationalist perspective to everyday problems in such areas as health and education. They’d also wrong-foot unionism, which thanks to Mike is now officially divided. And who knows – such a dramatic step could help build pressure on the British and Irish governments into addressing the need for a referendum on national unity.
Urgh. I haven’t been keeping up with any of the political developments here since the election results. Forgive me for going off topic, but thought this may be of interest to readers here –
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/05/16/daily-note-a-nation-once-again-dont-write-it-off
Grma,RJC. That is what I call an interesting article. Will unionists argue that it was commissioned by SF??
Nice find RJC and interesting points made.
If the British did pull out of Europe though, in my own opinion, it would be more likely that the EU would struggle more out of it.
It could potentially collapse the EU economy and threaten the whole European union.
Yes, England would suffer a short term dip in their financial sector profits, their most profitable sector but it would fully recover within 6 months and then rise becoming more successful than any part of the EU including Germany. They would become wealthier than they ever could achieve within the EU, but it would still be mostly the south eastern part of England but their bond investments would increase significantly in the medium term.
Control of their own borders would save them from the inevitable introduction and opening of EU borders to turkey which is going to see a further influx of foreign nationals into Ireland next year, greater than any seen previously. It has been put off for so long but the humanitarian crisis in the middle east is leaving them with little choice.
Scotland will request another referendum, but by the time it comes about, the decline in EU and rise of a wealthier England will more likely result in another failed effort at independence. The rise in the conservative vote, once an anathema in Scotland shows the next vote will be more difficult for them already and has left labour with very little chance of regaining power in England going forward meaning Tory rule for the foreseeable future.
Ireland will suffer mildly from additional trade regulations with the UK and there would need to be changes to the current home nation border controls to prevent it becoming an open gateway from the EU which they will resist. These will also have to be applied between the 6 counties and the rest of ulster causing the same disruption to cross border towns and communities there was previously.
Some in Ireland who feel the UK has been very good to them, will find it less so post brexit.
North south will be most effected, trains will have inspections and goods checks once again.
If the Ireland wish to remain in the EU, they will be forced to stick to the EU rules and have manned border controls once again.
So long as Dublin benefited from it, the border issue and impact in ulster wont matter one bit to them.
More and more nationalists disillusioned with Dublin’s lack of engagement may well like the new arrangements including a border which will be keeping more foreign nationals out and a UI will more than likely end up undesirable to a majority.
I mean, why should a disinterested Dublin rule be more desirable than a disinterested London rule?
Inevitable my ass.
Mr Nesbitt is gaining a reputation for walking out and jumping in and out of the Assembly. His antics suggest the lack of a plan or objectives. Political leaders are usually adept at outlining where the party is and what it hopes to achieve in any current mandate. There is a lack of clarity about the role of Mr Nesbitt’s party at present.
Other fault lines are evident. In order to sustain the assembly, there is a need to appoint a Justice Minister. Failure to do so will precipitate an election. The DUP will not support a Sinn Féin Justice Minister. There is a challenge in the proceedings for the SDLP. Politics is about the art of the possible. It is time to cut a deal.
I didn’t hear Sinn Féin on saying that they wouldn’t support a DUP Justice Minister, or did I miss it?
I’d say there’s more of a chance that the SDLP would join with Alliance than they would with Sinn Fein, somehow. The SDLP may talk about being an Irish Nationalist party but I think they’ve lost their way when their voters went to Sinn Fein and SinnFein have basically become the New SDLP except that they will not, as yet, do what the SDLP do … The SDLP didn’t change their policies after all.Why did their previous voters desert them for a party that will not sit at Westminster?. As far as I can see Sinn Fein are working within the capitalist economy just as the SDLP are so what is the difference now and why does the SDLP think that voters who were perfectly happy to vote for SDLP policies now vote for Sinn Fein. What exactly has changed their minds? Alliance attract a more middle class liberal voter who are happy enough with the status quo. I would imagine and that’s probably what the SDLP attract now too.
I would say the shift came about for a number of reasons, pk. One was a desire for peace – integrate republicans into politics. Another was a party that’d be tough enough to stand up to unionism (cf first fifty years of state). And lastly and not leastly, because SF sound a lot more focused on a UI than the SDLP ever did. In fact I doubt if the SDLP ever were a nationalist party.
That’s partly what I mean Jude … if the SDLP were never really a Nationalist party at all, but rather a sort of branch of the UK Labour Party…. why did a majority of “Irish nationalists ” vote for their policies in the past?…only to put MPs into Westminster…and by switching their voting power now to Sinn Fein , as they have done ,have they really thought about what exactly they are voting for?…or is it just a matter of voting for a perceived winner ?
“I would say the shift came about for a number of reasons, pk. One was a desire for peace – integrate republicans into politics. Another was a party that’d be tough enough to stand up to unionism (cf first fifty years of state). And lastly and not leastly, because SF sound a lot more focused on a UI than the SDLP ever did. In fact I doubt if the SDLP ever were a nationalist party.”
I would say that is fairly accurate Jude.
Would love to hear your opinion on why you think Sinn Feins and the nationalist overall vote is declining Jude, especially when the overall nationalist electorate eligible to vote is still rising?
For me, I am not a socialist, I don’t think they have stood up to unionism and they have lost all focus on a UI.
There is no alternative nationalist or independence party, so why should we vote in british elections?
I mean, the DUP won clearly. Had Martin McGuinness said, vote for me to be first minister and I will demand a referendum on a UI to keep the assembly up, he would have been first minister and Sinn Fein the largest party.
Saying weakly, it doesn’t really matter, if the DUP don’t get it and we do, I will do away with the position to keep them happy.
Now there’s an incentive, I mean, why bother? They will lose more seats next time out if they don’t buck up.
I just hope there is an alternative ulster independence party to vote for next time out.
when the slogan for the new start is[making northern ireland work] what nationalist wants it to work thats 1 of the reasons peoples not voting.
Good one Jude but i think they should go and join the FF FG they would suit them better they are all West Brits
Thank you RJC for a most illuminating article. I’d like to hear Arlene’s response to it. I think there is prescience in the closing sentiments, that unionism will jettison the economic argument when it suits and invest again in the ideology of fear and loathing.
That article should be compulsory reading for everyone in the north. Why aren`t Sinn Féin making more of it?
“That article should be compulsory reading for everyone in the north. Why aren`t Sinn Féin making more of it?”
Because in the event of a brexit, and the proving of its potential and significant inaccuracy, to do so would be more damaging to the cause of unity.
Unity should not be about convincing unionists, but convincing the Irish citizens first which they are failing miserably to do. To focus everything around unionism which is proven to be on the decline is idiocy to me.
I care less about unionism today than I ever did, they are not my people. They are irrelevant to me and Sinn Feins focus on pandering to them I find sickening to the point I was unable to vote for them for the first time.
AJ
Maybe because it is purely speculative?
Declan Kearney referenced it today on radio Ulster when debating the EU referendum with Ian Og. You can be sure that the DUP will ignore it.