There’s been much talk in recent days about a border poll and Irish reunification. It’s been brought on by BREXIT, with the north of Ireland, like Scotland, emphatically asking to remain in the EU, while England and Wales voted to exit. This has raised the question of whether we need a ‘hard’ border between the north and south of Ireland, and whether the north and the south would be a happier unit within the EU. There have even been those who argue that the opportunity for the north to vote in Irish Presidential elections would hasten the day of Irish unity.
OK, it’s true that we live in times when you can feel the political ground beneath your feet tremble. Throughout the world there’s a sense of dislocation – Donald Trump as a presidential candidate in the US, holidaying people being mowed down in Nice, Britain getting ready to eject itself from the cockpit of the EU, the British prime minister resigning, his replacement by a woman with echoes of Margaret Thatcher to her, Boris Johnston as British Foreign Secretary… Do I need to go on?
Despite all these bewildering events, the possibility of a border poll being called is remote. If its precursor is to be all of Ireland voting in a Presidential election, we’ll have a two-year wait before that’s even a possibility. Both Enda Kenny and Micheál Martin have raised the subject of a border poll, but only to parrot what it says in the Good Friday Agreement: that it’s in the lap of the British Secretary of State; and said Secretary of State has declared he sees no reason to hold one because in his view there’s not a majority calling for a border poll.
It is of course outrageous that this Englishman, with no background in Irish affairs, should be the one to decide whether the Irish will have an opportunity to vote on the biggest issue in Irish politics. Even more outrageous that he’s just got to say “I detect no appetite” or “I have no sense of a desire for change” and no one calls for harder proof than what James Brokenshire feels in his water.
But that’s how things are. The talk about a border poll comes from the hope among nationalists and republicans that the majority who are opposed to being yanked out of the EU will take the only possible action that might allow them to remain, and that’s to vote for Irish reunification. That last bit is the crucial bit, and while I’d love to be proved wrong, I don’t believe exit from the UK is a price a majority in the north are prepared to pay in order to remain in the EU.
Mind you, I’ve an appalling record as a predictor of events – BREXIT, Donald Trump, the resurrection of Fianna Fail- I’ve got them all wrong. But then again, so has everyone else.
Can I ask you a question Jude?
Of the 56% who voted to remain, do you think more than 6% did so, not because they want to be ruled from Brussels as part of the EU, but because they care more about the internal relationships within Ireland, that they do not want any change to the border arrangements and that they do not want trade differences within Ireland?
I don’t think you can reduce it to X or Y, jessica – there’s A, B, C, etc. I think those who voted remain did so because, all things considered, reasons for being in the EU outweigh reasons for leaving. I’d guess most wanted to remain (obviously) but did so with the hope that the EU could be democratized.
Many appear to be unhappy with the arrangement for the triggering of a border poll. I see two problems with there objections however.
Firstly the mechanism was voted for overwhelmingly in the GFA and allow many may not like it, it does have a democratic mandate to be the system we use to trigger a border poll.
Secondly, I hear no alternative system from any of the commentators here. Surely there has to be some reasonable system in place and a poll can’t be called whenever SF the SDLP or whoever else fancies one.
Perhaps a border poll should only be triggered when the nationalist parties become the largest political grouping in Stormont. This would produce a clearly defined trigger for a border poll.
If as in Scotland, a poll was called, then I would agree that one should not be called again without reasonable justification but in Ireland, there has never been a border poll Scott, not even when partition was decided to be undemocratically imposed on us.
I think refusal now by the English to listen to the peoples interest in a poll on both sides of the border would be a further denial of democracy and the people should not accept being treated like our opinions are worthless.
The question should not be should we have a border poll, but what options should be on the poll. Failure to do so now as this momentum builds up steam, would result in the same disgust felt against the Dublin establishment being levied at London then Stormont.
The problem is not going to go away for those who simply wish it would.
I have no problem with there being a border poll Jessica, however I think the discussion is really around what mechanism there should be to trigger one. To simply call one whenever a particular political party feels like it seems ridiculous, especially when the parties calling for it don’t make up the majority.
Do you have an alternative idea for a trigger beyond ad hoc whenever someone feels like it? Surely that’s not a sensible system.
If there was obvious support for a UI, I also highly doubt the UK goverment wouldn’t call a poll as I suspect they would be glad to get rid of us.
On the wider point of if there was a border poll I would like it to be delayed for 2-3 years. That would allow us to have a better idea what the post BREXIT settlement would be, thus letting us make a more informed choice as we are currently in limbo a bit.
“especially when the parties calling for it don’t make up the majority”
You don’t have to make up the majority to call a border poll Scott. There just needs to be evidence that a majority MAY vote for Irish Unity. At the minute, the combined vote of SF/SDLP/PBP, who all support Irish Unity, is around 43%, according to the Assembly Election results in May. The combined Unionist vote is around 47%. Its important to bear in mind it was a low turnout for nationalism at the elections but it will pick up again. Like for example in 1992 SF lost a seat in the British General Election, Unionists declared Sinn Fein to be “finished” electorally. Fast forward to the 1997 election and Sinn Fein retook their West Belfast seat and even knocked the DUP out of Mid Ulster and took their seat despite the SDLP also running (Willie McCrea even threatened Mid Ulster nationalists after the count because he lost). Sinn Fein has these dips and dives every now and then.
“On the wider point of if there was a border poll I would like it to be delayed for 2-3 years”
There definitely wont be a border poll in 2017 or 2018, it takes a long time to just arrange it. But after 2018 I definitely think one will be held. I like the idea of having 1 in 2021. I sense Fine Gael/Fianna Fail expect one to happen in the very near future.
Just today the Belfast Telegraph done another poll on Irish Unity. Whilst all their previous polls showed a majority favouring NI remaining in the UK, this one has 72% of people backing a border poll and 70% backing a United Ireland. 18,000 people voted in the poll……..a lot of squeaky bums in DUP HQ if that trend continues…..
I have no problem with a border poll Ryan, in fact I think there should be one since Brexit has changed the political landscape so significantly.
The discussion around whether there should be a poll and who might win it is different to the point I was making.
I was making the point that many appear unhappy with the mechanism that the SOS calls one when he feels there’s a chance of Irish unity.
Unionist would be equally unhappy with this system as the SOS could trigger a poll without clear indication, such as now. The percentages are according to the NI Assembly elections-Unionists 45.2% Nationslists 38%.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election,_2016
Also although I of course can’t be sure, I would imagine that most Alliance and Green voters would go Unionist judging by the areas where the garner support.
The main thrust of my argument is a clear, well defined trigger is needed. While I hear many complaints to the current system, I hear few alternatives being presented.
I also add that I only found out this morning that if a border poll is trigger under the Belfast agreement we are then obliged to run one every 7 years.
Surely that’s not right either. Run one every 7 years even if there’s no evidence that it would be successful.
Perhaps we should stop calling it a border poll when it is really much, much more than that.
Significant changes are taking place, and the way I see it, Ireland can step up and be a part of it, or sit back and wait to see what way the pieces fall and remain no more than an afterthought to accept the left overs from the more confident nations.
We in the north may be sed to being treaated like that by both London and Dublin, but it may be a new experioence for some in the south.
Also, I don’t see the 56% as a pro EU vote, I see it as a majority vote to put Ireland first, not only above remaining in the UK, but even over remaining within the EU. That opinion it seems is being replicated in the south making this now a national issue and not simply a region of the UK issue.
Now we can rubbish that, and ignore that Ireland is and always has been a separate entity within the UK with completely different issues, opinions and needs – proceed with tighter border controls no matter how much we try to minimise them, risk a return to conflict and destroying the improved relationship that has developed between both of these islands since the GFA and further damage the relationship between Dublin and the north potentially bringing a conflict back to our streets which will spread this time to our capital city – or we can say enough is enough. It is time we started talking seriously about the future of this island and its future relationship with Britain and Europe and the inevitability that it will be as a single nation. It is time to take control of our own destiny back into our own hands.
Brexit has made it crystal clear that the border issue is no longer a northern Ireland issue, but a national issue on this island.
At the moment I believe a majority would be willing to consider closer relations between Britain and Ireland but if trust is lost over unionist and English intransigence now (it is no longer British as Scotland want the same entitlements), then that trust will be out the window and lost for generations to come. There can be no going back into our shells now.
“Also, I don’t see the 56% as a pro EU vote, I see it as a majority vote to put Ireland first, not only above remaining in the UK, but even over remaining within the EU. ”
Strange view.
Youre right there Jude, both Enda’s and Micheals comments regarding a border poll, sounded hollow and had no conviction about it. It sounded like them trying to put pressure on the EU – because a hard border would affect the Souths economy. Both parties never gave a damn about the North for years.
The only way i can see a border poll every being called and won, is if the Norths economy tanks and the Souths economy roars ahead. And of course if there is a hard border, this too will dispel nationalists apathy.
Other than the above, the UK is safe – and never mind the religious demographic changes thats completely irrelevant for now
(and i say this as a man who crosses the border everyday to work in North, so i have a good idea how things are on the ground).
An Englishman has decided the fate of Irishmen since the days after Dermott Mac Murrough and his ill thought out plans. Mr. Brokencounty has little or no knowledge of our country, or the part of it he sees fit to make determinations on, and while messers Martin and Kenny regurgitate the GFA in order to exude some kind of caring about the north, the cold stark fact is, right wing Tory government with Arlene licking its arse will never give in to nationalists demands. Dublin, in the current atmosphere, has an opportunity to exert its aspirations now. But the question is- what are Dublin’s aspirations? It is high time they showed some metal and drew up some kind of strong contingency plan for when the inevitable Brexit happens. Mere extension of the presidential franchise to the north , while it is to be welcomed, would another glossing over. I believe they must press the EU hard for extra funding as regards infrastructure for the north given that they have a more than substantial say in the jurisdiction
Definite and indefinite articles
According to the British Prime Minister, Brexit means Brexit.
“Yes, Prime Minister.”
Ms May:
“I want to work with Chancellor Merkel and my colleagues around the European council in a constructive spirit to make this a sensible and orderly departure. All of us will need time to prepare for these negotiations and the United Kingdom will not invoke article 50 until our objectives are clear.”
In response, Chancellor Merkel said it was
“absolutely understandable”
that Ms May’s new government will have to
“take a moment first and try to seek to identify its interests”.
“It is after all to our advantage to have the UK define its negotiating stance in great detail and clarity and if possible also to clearly outline how it sees its future relationship with Europe.”
A week is a long time in politics but how long is a moment, bearing in mind it only took Ted Heath a moment to prorogue Stormont.
“If its precursor is to be all of Ireland voting in a Presidential election, we’ll have a two-year wait before that’s even a possibility.”
It’s not the timescale you should be focusing on, it’s the fact that it could happen at all. And whither then, all those Unionists who have called for their constituents to apply for Irish passports? Those Unionists will have lost the argument before it even begins!
“Even more outrageous that he’s just got to say “I detect no appetite” or “I have no sense of a desire for change””
Indeed!
But who said, ‘Brexit means Brexit’ – as we learn that we won’t be triggering Article 50 this year?
And, who said he didn’t want to be Prime Minister before throwing his hat into the ring?
And which government supports the UK Union but has no strategic interest in NI?
Anyway, he ‘detects’ nothing… yet. And that’s equally ‘outrageous’ for Unionists!
“Both Enda Kenny and Micheál Martin have raised the subject of a border poll, but only to parrot what it says in the Good Friday Agreement”
I’m not so sure. According to the Irish press (dare I refer to the Independent?!), Kenny seems to have raised the issue with regard to implementing it: “The discussion and negotiations that take place over the next period should take into account the possibility, however far out it might be, that the clause in the Good Friday Agreement might be triggered,”.
NB “should take into account”; “however far out”; “that the clause… might be triggered”. And the wider context: “People said it would be impossible that Britain would leave the European Union; that has taken place now.”
But maybe unionist ears hear these things differently?
“while I’d love to be proved wrong, I don’t believe exit from the UK is a price a majority in the north are prepared to pay in order to remain in the EU.”
But that’s a different question – one about how people might vote – not about whether a vote might take place.
At first glance, Esteemed Blogemeister, one got a bit of a land: good golly, Miss Molly, could this really be……. Joe Brolly ?
And him to be demonstrating – surely not again !– how he slotted the bicycle-pumped ball into the back of the Donegal onion sack in Clones, Ulster Final Day 1998 for a last minute game-changer of a goal.
Who fears to speak of ’98 ? Not Joe, that man of Sperrin mettle.
But then , the vision rapidly vanished and an even more hair-raising ‘mare unfurled.
IS FEARR SASANACH BRISTE na GAEL CLISTE *
A pneumatic esquire,J Brokenshire
Beds in his treads in the Land of Ire
Will it be, pray, a Goodyear
For the Roses, Lord Interfere?
Or a Dunlop flop with an Eire-filled tyre?
*A broken English male is better than a token, brainy Gael.
Dear Perkin, a token brainy Gael!? Could this be evil Enda??
He said ‘brainy’, Ciarán. Not low animal cunning…
Ta brón orm Jude. As soon as I posted I realised the mistake haha! Enda Kenny the stage Irishman! GBS would have been proud of him.
“It’s been brought on by BREXIT, with the north of Ireland, like Scotland, emphatically asking to remain in the EU, while England and Wales voted to exit.”
Emphatically? I thought it was only 56% or something in NI?
53% was considered an emphatic result in England MT
Then again, the English were allowed to have their opinions on the EU put to referendum , the Scots had their say. Are the Irish not worthy of having an opinion of our own?
“53% was considered an emphatic result in England MT”
No it wasn’t.
Compared to the UK-wide Brexit vote of 52% I suppose you could call 56% emphatic!
55% in Scottish referendum voted no to independence. This was declared emphatic, resounding, overwhelming etc etc. You cant pick and choose everytime it suits you. If 51.8% is enough to decide the fate of the uk EU relationship, then 56% in north staying in is emphatic.
“55% in Scottish referendum voted no to independence. This was declared emphatic, resounding, overwhelming etc etc.”
No it wasn’t. Or if some people did, they were wrong.
You have a very selective memory. Cameron on many occasions has spouted that it was overwhelming
“You have a very selective memory. Cameron on many occasions has spouted that it was overwhelming.:
I never heard him once say that. As I already said, though, if he did he was wrong.
Out of interest, perhaps you could provide a link to him saying that
“It is of course outrageous that this Englishman, with no background in Irish affairs, should be the one to decide whether the Irish will have an opportunity to vote on the biggest issue in Irish politics”
Well I think it was a SF politician, Martina Anderson or someone else, who said after Theresa Villiers got the chop that ALL British Secretaries of State should stay over in Britain and that we don’t need them. I would agree with that. What exactly does a SoS actually do? Other than pander to political Unionism, that is.
As the great Michael Collins said: “Our greatest weapon is our refusal”. Why don’t we just simply disregard what some unelected (by the people of Ireland, North or South) English man has to say? We are our own masters. What can they do? Nothing. The Irish people, North and South, will decide our own destiny. Its simply ridiculous that around 15% (and declining) of the people on this island are obstructing the self determination of the 85%.
A border poll wont be held this year or the next. And to be honest I don’t think Republicanism would want it that early either. I think a great date for a border poll would be in 2021 or 2022. I think that would give us a better chance of winning it. A border poll will come along sooner or later and the conditions NI will be in economically after Brexit will make the calls for Irish Unity stronger.
There is a referendum next year to give Irish people abroad and in the North the right to vote in Irish Presidential elections. All the Southerners I spoke to on twitter believe it will be an easy Yes vote to give Northerners this right. Its been a while since SF have brought it up but soon enough there may be seats (with speaking rights but no voting rights) for MP’s from the North to sit in the Dail. SF MP’s obviously said they would take theirs, the SDLP have yet to comment on it. Its these little tell tale signs is how I see Irish Unity creeping forward.
As I pointed out in a post yesterday, the economic/social argument is on the side of Irish Unity, not NI staying in the UK. Why would anyone, especially Catholics, want to stay in a sectarian, failed, bankrupt statelet? Its up to Republicans to start now and dissolve the myths of the so called “benefits” of the Union.
I agree with everything you said Ryan.
Without Dublin behind us, creeping forward is exactly how it will go.
Ryan
I do think your comments overstated at times, but you raise a couple of points with which I concur – the first about voting rights in the matter of President of Ireland, and the second about seats and speaking rights in the Dail.
In my view something of this kind will follow sooner or later, while in the background Unionists will continue to cry, Wol…”Safe”!
Of equal interest to me are the varying perspectives within Nationalism, especially those obvious on this blog. Clearly there are those who don’t agree with you (or me for that matter) on the question of inevitable political unity (I say political because I suspect that the hearts of the people will be divided as much as ever), but what, in your opinion, is the reason for the variety of Nationalist/Republican opinion on the matter?
And might I highlight something else in your comments (which may be related)? I note you refer to “the great Michael Collins”, whom you quote as saying, “Our greatest weapon is our refusal”.
But wasn’t his lack of refusal at least part of the reason for the great debate and subsequent civil war of the early 1920’s – echoes of which seem to resonate in Nationalist Irish thinking to this day – perhaps including the attitudes in this contemporary debate on unity?
Could it be that I am witnessing on this website a continuation of the pro and anti Treaty debate of almost 100 years ago?
One more thing: the suggestion about the economic argument being in favour of a United Ireland, surely only makes sense if that United Ireland was also part of a bigger Union or Federation of European or World/Commonwealth nations? Do you really believe that Ireland can go it alone economically? Which, as I’ve said before, risks just as much a dilution of Irish sovereignty as anything else.
Hi Ryan, I agree that obtaining the imprimatur of our fellow Irish folk to have the right to determine whom should be our national leader will be quite easy.
I myself raised this issue some years ago at an Oireachtas committee on the matter, that was 2009, I am still waiting a response from the Chair of the Committee.
“Hi Ryan, I agree that obtaining the imprimatur of our fellow Irish folk to have the right to determine whom should be our national leader will be quite easy.”
The president isn’t, and shouldn’t be, a leader. He is merely a representative
MT, while, by translation, an Taoiseach is the Chieftain, the leader of the people, democratically elected, unlike in the neighbouring state, is Uachtarian na hEireann, he is ‘leader’ because, without his authority, again, like our neighbouring state, all law’s require his, or her, signature, otherwise, they remain Bills which have no effect, of he doesn’t sign or has difficulty he will consult the Council of State but, necause of his supreme elected role, he leads, Government must consult with them so, he leads.
“MT, while, by translation, an Taoiseach is the Chieftain, the leader of the people, democratically elected, unlike in the neighbouring state, is Uachtarian na hEireann, he is ‘leader’ because, without his authority, again, like our neighbouring state, all law’s require his, or her, signature, otherwise, they remain Bills which have no effect, of he doesn’t sign or has difficulty he will consult the Council of State but, necause of his supreme elected role, he leads, Government must consult with them so, he leads.”
I understand the role of the Southern president and it is not that of leader. Signing bills isn’t leadership.
Ciaran agus A Mhaistir Ionuin Blog, a chairde,
Strange as it might sound but one hadn’t Enda in mind at all. With a few exceptions, the membership of Fine Gael would probably be the last place where one would look with a fine tooth pick for a Gael, not least a clever one whatever about one of the token variety.
It has been the exterior of Enda K which has caused the most comment down through the years; that boyish look, and him to be the Father of the House and all. The Dorian Grey of the Dail, that sort of thingy.
The unfortunate corollary of all this obsession with the façade of der Fine Gael Fuhrer is that it has been, alas, to the detriment of his ministry of the interior. Specifically, the Dorian Grey matter of EK. Sadly, his brain remains a terra incognita.
This is particularly unfortunate for the following reason. Whereas Dev was known to look into his heart to discover what the Irish people required it is not as well known that it is to his brain that Enda tends to strain, insane though that might well appear.
And this is most unfortunate. The clue lies in the most memorable quote of his epigram-rich tenure as Prime Minister of West Britannnia:
-Paddy likes to know what the story is.
The P-word is indubitably the key-word here. A real wheel-brace of a word which caught the unwary unawares smack on the noggin and knocked them for six for sure. Not the sort of bon mot one might expect from the Prime Minister of Padded Platitudes. But exactly the kind of word associated with the unique shape of the Kenny brain:
-Endomurphyc.
The overwhelming characteristic of this unique brainshape is that it tends towards a sluggish mental metabolism, a marked absence of ideas, imagination or gumption which together impart a paradoxical impression of deep thought and empty headedness , resulting in a smug and baffling tendency towards intellectual complacency.
Whose outward manifestation is expressed by an iffy Wesht of the Shannon habit of supercilious sniffing during speeches delivered on Liffeyside.
In a sentence:
-Paddy likes to know (sniff) what the story is.
That being so, and given the recent worrying trend of his brain cell structure to adopt a Snaking Regrardless habit of suddenly shouting ‘Border Poll !’ in crowded places, one would not be at all surprised to read the following headline in the Daily Screech in the not too distant f.:
-Eire Head of Government finally heads off wesht to get his head examined in the Mayo Clinic.
Haha, my dear Perkin, the grace with which you wield your scalpel leaves me in breá humour! Swift action on the malformed cranium of lord Kenny……OFF WITH HIS HEAD!!