Fair play to Mrs May for setting out her stall of reasonable demands for a smooth brexit.
England has a land border with France via the channel tunnel and she makes it crystal clear there will be no free movement here or elsewhere between England and the EU.
The free movement will end pretty much immediately if it gets Westminster backing in March and it is now up to the EU to capitulate and agree to a free trade deal with the UK without freedom of movement or refuse and know they are in for a trade war with the UK that they are in no position to win.
Agreeing to this and other nations will be queuing up to leave the EU and seek their own similar deals.
Refuse, well how can they. Tariffs even at WTO rates will mean they are cutting off their nose to spite their face, they will lose the most having the surplus trade and the UK will simply switch to other markets who are prepared to do free trade deals in particular from the US who are keen as English mustard to get a new deal in place quickly and take as much of that EU trade as possible.
But she has also given them wriggle room to do a deal which could patch things up.
The biggest attraction of remaining in the EU apart from free trade is the combined R&D and she has claimed she wants to remain a part of the EU innovation and will pay to retain links with select areas of the union. Free trade could be limited to key industries such as cars which is important to both Germany and England. It is almost certainly however NOT going to include areas of trade more relevant to Ireland such as agriculture which is essential for most EU nations and therefore Ireland truly is screwed.
The only free movement of people important to the UK is with Ireland who buy more from Britain than the rest of the EU combined and that does get a mention with the addition that the customs union will be efficient. This means customs checks at key roads crossing the border, but delays will be minimal we are told.
Norway and Sweden have got it down to a 30 minute delay getting goods across the EU border, I doubt Ireland or many nations could match Norway never mind better them.
That alone should cause a sufficient inconvenience and along with the electronic paperwork to be prepared in advance and checked will have additional costs on all goods going through.
Clearly, the UK don’t give a monkeys about the damage to Ireland and are leaving us with little choice but to abandon the EU and support the UK.
So what is Enda Kenny doing to look out for the interests of Ireland?
Not to worry, he has confirmed the common travel area between Britain and Ireland is “something we want and will preserve.” and that he has managed to agree with Mrs May that “there will be no return to the hard border, or borders of the past”, but wait, he goes further, he also got her to agree that “Nor do you want customs posts every 100 yards, or military installation.”
So at least we know customs posts won’t be as many as every 100 yards and with any luck there will be no military installation.
Businesses will be delighted I’m sure.
But not to worry Mr Kenny has also said: “we are nearing the point where the formal negotiations can actually begin”
Do we assume therefore Ireland have not been negotiating and are leaving it completely up to the EU to decide our fate, for I am sure Irelands needs will be high on their agenda?
Why am I getting to the point where I want brexit to do as much damage to Irelands economy as possible?
Is it because the southern establishment have treated the Irish citizens in the north with reckless disregard, as second class Irish in our own land. So long as the southern economy was doing well and the landlords in the right wing parties were lining their pockets, the north of the country on either side of the border doesn’t really matter, certainly pre brexit it didn’t anyway?
Is that really the level of leadership the Irish citizens who are afforded the right to vote for the Taoiseach of our country want?
Has Ireland really accepted its lot is to be a minnow to the EU or a minnow to the UK and just be grateful someone is there for us.
Is Ireland the beaten wife of Europe who fears to speak out, fears to leave their abusive partner and has lost all confidence and self-esteem as a result?
It takes courage to stand up for ourselves but it is always the right thing to do.
It is time that the people of Ireland regained its courage and stood up to arrogance whether it be from the DUP, the UK or the EU.
Just as Mrs May is taking back control of her borders, it is time Ireland took back control of our borders.
It is time to throw this lame duck Taoiseach out on his arse and for a new Ireland to rise up and take our rightful place as one of the most innovative and successful nations on this planet, to look after our people with dignity and respect and to fight for our rights to control our own borders free of EU or UK interference.
lets not forget where the blame lies for a hard brexit.corbyn and the lettuce nibblers open border policy was to blame,nobody else.no sane government was going to let their country be over run by bogus refugees,benefit seeking tourists and their ilk especially after the way enoch powells unheeded warning turned out with the last batch.on the other hand a hard border will be a key campaigning point in the event of a border poll providing the south isnt overrun by the time its called.
Billy, worth noting, Jeremy Corbyn has persistently voted against the EU in Parliamentary votes, in no small part because he knew the EU was not the great protector of worker’s rights.
corbyns irrelevant now anyway along with labour they will go the way of the dodo after brexit.once people see the benefits of the new laws reclaiming their towns and villages back.
Sorry Billy, that was not my point, I should suggest, Jeremy Corbyn is probably, given his anti-federalist history, more relevant than ever he was. His inability to persuade the middle class selfish international socialists within his own party in some check is his problem, the best thing for democratic accountability in Britain would be a comprehensive opposition, unfortunately, the self same international socialists, will banjax all that, for the interests of their wealthy Brussels counterparts.
My thinking anyhow.
I wouldn’t be so sure billy.
I expect Jeremy will not vote against Brexit in March and will allow Mrs May to do the deed. Once Article 50 is triggered there is no going back and that is when he will come into his own.
He is playing his cards right and of the dumb asses in his party had any sense, they would get behind him.
As usual Jessica, I find myself in near wholesome agreement with you. The problem with your last suggestion, re: an Taoiseach quitting is, what hope if we were, then, left with Leo, Simon, God save us, Dick Bruton.
The problem is, and I’ve said this before, the whole Free State are, media driven, up to their eye’s in pro-EU sentiment, beholden to the liars who, in 2009 told them to bhotail Ta for Lisbon 2 or they’d get no jobs, unless you’re a tradesman though, the jobs are still absent but RTE, Newstalk et.al. will not let us know that, crowds have grown on Dublin streets, but I observe, they’re not spending as much now as they were before.
One other thing is, and they failed to sustain the effort, Fianna Fáil, in the form of Bertie Ahern and certain of his senior Ministers, did bring us the Good Friday Agreement and Albert previously brought us the commencement of the Peace process, problem is, with one notable exception, those committed ministers are all gone now, replaced by amadauní who can’t make their minds up without recourse to overpaid political ‘science’ graduates (sorry, politics is not a science) whose prime interest is their pocket and socialising in Kildare St.
What I am saying is, at this time, the possibility of having the Free State part of our country is nil. We do have a new political party, led by a former youth defencer but, can’t see their anti-EU message getting past the media censors, even ignoring other aspects of their policy platform.
The good news is, for me at least, na Gardaí can detain me on my way to work but, on hearing my accent, must wave me on from any proposed check points, pre Hogan, J. in Pachero & Anor. v. Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform.
On the creation of such checks, you may, like I, recall the ‘customs clearance’ posts at Armagh, Keady and Blaney of the past, still there well after Ireland and the UK entered the EEC, i NEVER COULD UNDERSTAND WHY BUT, IF IT HAS TO BE, THAT’S WHAT THE fREE sTATER’S VOTED FOR RATHER THAN DISMISS lISBON, AND nICE, OoPs.
Without doubt, combined with the election of Donald J. the ability of Brussels bureaucrats to tie business up in red tape, will require significant overcoming, I always thought the EEC was a good idea, federalism, whether within the UK or the EU is undemocratic and as Republicans we should vote against this, whether this means Ireland joing the commonwealth, developed into a large trading bloc, working closely with Britain to develop new ties with BRIC and other states or cutting their own teeth are options but, as above, not going to happen.
Our primary hope, I think, as an anti-federalist, lies with The Nederland, Francais, Italia and even, perhaps, Deutschland, the Free State can suffer the bed they made.
The EEC was a good idea Mark.
The reason I would even go so far as to support a degree of federalism for Ireland is because of the incompetence and untrustworthiness of consecutive Irish governments.
They are incompetent and corrupt.
What the EU is pursuing now is not the EEC and not even federalism but political union and runs absolutely counter to Irelands republican ideals.
Had we a Taoiseach worthy of the title, we would be proactively seeking to persuade the people of this island to unite as one and encouraging the UK government to do likewise. He would get off his backside and tour the north and encourage economic debate to let the people know what businesses know is the best option for our economic security.
“England has a land border with France via the channel tunnel and she makes it crystal clear there will be no free movement here or elsewhere between England and the EU.”
When did she make this ‘crystal clear’?
Jessica, you say that Theresa has assured us she doesn’t want a return to the old borders nor security posts every 100 yards, or metres for those of a more EU bent.
But do we have any idea what border restrictions the EU will insist on.
The new borders that Theresa wants may just be the old borders with a fresh lick of paint!
Those are the words of Enda Kenny, Sherdy – she apparently assured him there would not be security posts every 100 yards.
That is as far as his achievements in his negotiations with the UK over probably the greatest challenge Ireland has faced since partition which resulted in a bloody civil war I should add.
In my own view, if the EU back down, it will result in Netherlands, Austria, Italy and other nations hitting the exit button pretty damn quickly.
A trade war between the EU and UK in my view is inevitable and will be encouraged by Trump who will play them off one another to make America great again.
Unless they either restrain him to a more considerate temperament less disruptive to the whole planet, he will either transform things for the better rapidly, or quite possibly plunge the world into another war and depression.
I am sure the CIA have at least considered bumping him off in another unexpected presidential assassination.
Ireland has no choice but to hold a border poll and unite the country before the UK leaves the EU.
I noticed some businesses saying that tariffs would not happen for another 24 months.
Not so, the 24 months is the maximum.
I believe the UK border controls will happen well within 24 months and possible immediately so tariffs could be implemented within weeks not years.
Brexit will be good for England, but it will devastate Irelands economy and slap it up us for tolerating the border for so long.
The more damage it does the better.
The GFA has always been a basket case agreement, whose only saving grace has been the removal of the gun from NI politics.
While that has been a very good thing, the agreement has pretty much run its course.
The Unionists have figured out they can sign off on pretty much anything to fob off the Nationalists – while delivering on none of it.
I don’t think SF will agree to return to Stormont without some major concessions – which are unlikely to come.
In reality it is likely they will roll the dice on direct rule or joint authority as a means to further the long term objective of a UI.
The imposition of a hard Brexit – and a hard border if that also comes – will only strengthen that position.
At the end of the day, British control of the island inevitably leads to these crises.
Now that only 6 counties are controlled doesn’t change that.
Dublin is now powerless to influence decisions which will have major and long lasting consequences for the whole island and its people.
That is the nature of partition, and will continue to be so until all 32 counties are in the ROI.
Harking to the GFA will not help. It has provided a convenient excuse to overlook the ongoing failure of the 6 counties, but it has now very likely run out of steam.
It’s time for the Dail to step up and demand the best possible outcome for all the people on the island now that the EU/UK crisis is coming to a head.
They may elect to once again stand idly by – but the potential implications to the ROI must be dawning on at least some of them at this point.
The GFA was about nothing other than confirmation the Irish people want an end of conflict and an opportunity for the UK to legislate to leave with minimal disruption from unionism to allow their numbers to decrease and a more moderate voice to evolve, more acceptant of Irish unity.
It allowed us to make a genuine attempt to grow our economy with a gradual reduction in funding from the UK until Ireland could afford to pick up the tab and for gradual increase in all island co operation to pave the way until the country was united in all but name and a referendum would be the final step.
“Dublin is now powerless to influence decisions which will have major and long lasting consequences for the whole island and its people.”
Yes, indeed.
Brexit has blown that plan out of the water and the uncertainty over the border is impacting Dublin now whereas before it was not.
That is the bit that gets me.
Dublin didn’t give a shit about us until it negatively affected their own economy.
“They may elect to once again stand idly by – but the potential implications to the ROI must be dawning on at least some of them at this point.”
Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have proven they have no bottle for the leadership Ireland needs and even pulling Bertie back into the limelight will give me no reassurance.
If the people in the south sell us out once again now, it will be for the last time ever.
The uk will need longer than two years to negotiate the trade deals it needs. After two years, it requires unanimous permission from the 27 to continue. One of the 27 could easily ask for the return of its national territory plus German-style reparations, while also offering Scotland ( and Wales) DDR-style membership of the EU. At this point, Little Britain is over a barrel: it has to yield.
The EU is always going to win any trade negotiations.
The only card they have to play is not to negotiate.
The EU doesn’t give a shit about Ireland, it is actually well aware of its plans to leave the EU and has been pursuing and winning court cases against Irelands corporate tax policies. It has already won the first case and has an EU ruling that Ireland has broken EU legislation in offering Apple illegal state aid in the sweetheart deal and is now pursuing tax harmony throughout the EU which would hurt Ireland by removing its low corporation tax rate which has to remain.
Yes, Ireland could block a trade deal with the UK until they hand over the north.
A few things you should consider.
1
The southern establishment has never gave a damn about the north, why would they even consider doing such a thing now?
2
The EU will never allow Scotland to join, Spain will absolutely never allow it.
3
As soon as trade tariffs are introduced, over 90% of domestic businesses which account for over 50% of Irelands tax revenue raised will absolutely demand we leave the EU and the economic crisis that will ensue will mean no political party will or even could oppose it.
4
The US sees an expanding EU as an economic threat which is why it withdrew the Trans Atlantic Trade deal and why Trump intends to curb the EU driven growth of globalisation.
5
The UK would never accept Irish unity on those terms and have already agreed to give it up peacefully which by Dublin simply showing an interest would not be very difficult to achieve.
In short, what you suggest is grossly unrealistic and simply isnt going to happen.
If I were Mrs May, I would get the vote through with majority support in March and close the borders down in April and offer to allow free trade on an as was basis and let the EU make the next move.
If they impose tariffs either by reverting to the WTO or additional tariffs then I would stop paying a penny into the EU immediately, match the tariffs but also impose a 35% tax on car imports from the EU.
I would reduce corporation tax to 15% and make the London financial market a tax haven for EU businesses to drive as much capital out of the EU as possible.
I would invest billions in domestic capital projects to sustain the economy throughout the trade war with the EU planning for 10 years and invest in the NHS and public services. I would make free trade deals with the rest of the world and encourage other net contributor EU nations such as Netherlands to leave.
I would close the channel tunnel permanently by filling it with cement so it was inaccessible.
I think the EU knows perfectly well where that would leave it.
The absolute worst thing the UK could do is negotiate.
“DDR-style membership of the EU.”
What is this?
Showing the youthfulness of your years MT?
DDR is an old name for East Germany.
Northern Ireland has already been accepted by the EU as Ireland is one country.
However, the same does not apply to Scotland or Wales which are separate countries that make up Great Britain which if could be divided up so parts can benefit from membership of the EU and others benefit from leaving, Spain would have kittens.
The UK consists of Great Britain AND Northern Ireland – 2 completely separate entities.
While it is perfectly acceptable to impose a land border in Ireland and all the strife that comes with it, there is no chance of a similar economic hindrance being tolerated in GB as it would impact on England who rule the UK.
A second Scottish referendum to create a new EU border within GB would also fail miserably for that reason, they had their chance and bottled it. Best they can hope for now is independence within a more federal UK.
“DDR is an old name for East Germany.”
I know I’m asking what DDR-style membership of the EU is. DDR was never a member of the EU.
“Northern Ireland has already been accepted by the EU as Ireland is one country.”
This doesn’t make sense.
“The UK consists of Great Britain AND Northern Ireland – 2 completely separate entities.”
Great Britain and Ireland aren’t completely separate entities.
“While it is perfectly acceptable to impose a land border in Ireland and all the strife that comes with it, there is no chance of a similar economic hindrance being tolerated in GB as it would impact on England who rule the UK.”
Eh?
“I know I’m asking what DDR-style membership of the EU is. DDR was never a member of the EU.”
DDR was accepted into the EU as part of German unification.
The EU have accepted the same would apply to Northern Ireland in the event of Irish unification.
In other words there would be a smooth transition and no issues.
Scotland on the other hand would not meet the same criteria and will simply not get the support it needs to join even by merging with Ireland = although that might be their best shot, I just don’t see it happening. Scotland future lies hand in hand with England.
“Great Britain and Ireland aren’t completely separate entities. ”
Yes they are MT, Northern Ireland is not in GB not matter how hard you wish it was.
Why else is the UK referred to as GB and NI?
“While it is perfectly acceptable to impose a land border in Ireland and all the strife that comes with it, there is no chance of a similar economic hindrance being tolerated in GB as it would impact on England who rule the UK.”
A customs border between Scotland and England MT.
It would be divide and create sectarian tensions, create economic competiveness, weaken the economy on both sides of the border and rock political stability.
You know, all the same things it did over here.
Not to mention, loyalists might decide to use terrorism, form a Scottish Volunteer Force and oppose Scotland leaving the UK through killing innocent Scottish children the way England taught loyalists to do here.
“DDR was accepted into the EU as part of German unification.”
I know.
“The EU have accepted the same would apply to Northern Ireland in the event of Irish unification.
In other words there would be a smooth transition and no issues.”
What’s this got to do with Scotland and Wales?
“Scotland on the other hand would not meet the same criteria and will simply not get the support it needs to join even by merging with Ireland = although that might be their best shot, I just don’t see it happening. Scotland future lies hand in hand with England.”
‘Merging with Ireland’? What are you talking about?
“Great Britain and Ireland aren’t completely separate entities. ”
“Yes they are MT, Northern Ireland is not in GB not matter how hard you wish it was.”
That doesn’t mean GB and NI are separate entities.The UK is a single entity.
“Why else is the UK referred to as GB and NI?”
Because it originated with the Act of Union between the then separate kingdoms of GB and Ireland. After that they became a single Kingdom. That’s what ‘united’ means. That’s what ‘union’ means.
“While it is perfectly acceptable to impose a land border in Ireland and all the strife that comes with it, there is no chance of a similar economic hindrance being tolerated in GB as it would impact on England who rule the UK.”
“A customs border between Scotland and England MT. It would be divide and create sectarian tensions, create economic competiveness, weaken the economy on both sides of the border and rock political stability.”
In your opinion. What this got to do with ‘DDR-style membership’ for Scotland and Wales?
“You know, all the same things it did over here.”
A customs border in Ireland didn’t do all of those things.
“Not to mention, loyalists might decide to use terrorism, form a Scottish Volunteer Force and oppose Scotland leaving the UK through killing innocent Scottish children the way England taught loyalists to do here.”
Or nationalists could do the same if Scotland keeps voting to stay in the UK, like they did in NI.
“What’s this got to do with Scotland and Wales? ”
England are leaving the EU, Scotland want to remain.
We are exploring their options of how they can achieve membership in the absence of England.
Merging with Ireland is one such option to be considered which I was ruling out.
“That doesn’t mean GB and NI are separate entities.The UK is a single entity.”
Yes it is, and it is made up of Great Britain and Northern Ireland which are also separate entities.
“Because it originated with the Act of Union between the then separate kingdoms of GB and Ireland. After that they became a single Kingdom. That’s what ‘united’ means. That’s what ‘union’ means.”
But it is not irreversible MT, the UK is only an agreement between different nations to act in the collective interest of all.
Many feel England have betrayed this and the UK is basically following the best interests of England and should be scrapped or at least reformed.
“A customs border in Ireland didn’t do all of those things.”
Oh yes it did.
“Or nationalists could do the same if Scotland keeps voting to stay in the UK, like they did in NI.”
It was unionism that started the conflict here MT, it was republicans who ended it in good faith which was thrown back in our faces.
“England are leaving the EU, Scotland want to remain. We are exploring their options of how they can achieve membership in the absence of England. Merging with Ireland is one such option to be considered which I was ruling out.”
Scotland ‘merging with Ireland’ is an option??
You’re a fantasist.
“That doesn’t mean GB and NI are separate entities.The UK is a single entity.”
“Yes it is, and it is made up of Great Britain and Northern Ireland which are also separate entities.”
No they aren’t. The UK is a single entity. That is the whole point of it.
Serious lack of understanding on your part.
“Because it originated with the Act of Union between the then separate kingdoms of GB and Ireland. After that they became a single Kingdom. That’s what ‘united’ means. That’s what ‘union’ means.”
“But it is not irreversible MT”
Nobody said it was. Nothing is irreversible.
“, the UK is only an agreement between different nations to act in the collective interest of all.”
It’s not only that. It’s much more than that: it’s a sovereign political union.
“A customs border in Ireland didn’t do all of those things.”
“Oh yes it did.”
It didn’t. It didn’t ‘divide and create sectarian tensions’, those tensions were already there and, in fact, were a cause not a result of the customs border. ‘Political instability’ was not caused by customs, but by political events within Northern Ireland. If a customs border ‘created economic competiveness’, that was a good thing.
““Or nationalists could do the same if Scotland keeps voting to stay in the UK, like they did in NI.”
It was unionism that started the conflict here MT, it was republicans who ended it in good faith which was thrown back in our faces.”
Whoever ‘started it’ is irrelevant. Nationalist terrorists still murdered children.
MT, I wasn’t promoting the idea of a union between Scotland and Ireland, in fact I was suggesting their best interests lie in their relationship with England.
They have a land border and people on either side have more in common with one another than they do with people further afield in the south of the country in particular.
Interesting to know why you find a union between northern britain and Ireland is fantasy but you don’t seem to understand why some of us feel the union between northern Ireland and britain is equally as foolish and possibly for the exact same reasons.
Can you imagine trade tariffs between Scotland and England?
Having to produce identification to cross the border, car searches, different police forces at each side, jurisdictional issues?
Where would it all lead?