Peace prospects in Northern Ireland rest on parties committing to power-sharing in line with Good Friday Peace Agreement, writes Shannon Ebrahim.
The world has been largely oblivious to the deepening political crisis in Northern Ireland.
Eighteen years ago, the Good Friday Peace Agreement that brought peace to the troubled territory was huge international news. But its unravelling has been all but ignored.
Northern Ireland’s history of extreme political violence and hatred was so visceral that once the peace process had been signed, there was immense celebration.
For much of the world, the problem was solved and few monitored progress in terms of reconciliation or mutual respect between all sides to the conflict, including the British state, which still claims jurisdiction over the region.
But the Good Friday Agreement was not a political settlement, it was a political compromise and an experiment in power-sharing based on political institutions set up to guarantee equality for all traditions and to recognise the all-Ireland context.
The peace process has transformed the overall political landscape, but resistance to this new dispensation has brought heightened levels of political instability, which, if left long enough, could damage the peace process itself.
Part of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 made the British and Irish governments equal partners in overseeing the peace process in Northern Ireland, and to guarantee delivery of mutual respect and equality for all political identities and traditions.
This has not happened for two reasons. The Irish government has acted as a junior partner and not as a sovereign co-equal, and been largely disengaged from the process.
The Conservative British government which was returned in 2015 has treated the Northern Ireland peace process with indifference, and adopted an explicitly pro-unionist bias. What the Tories did was step back from their obligations to implement the Good Friday Agreement.
The consequence is that neither the British nor Irish governments have met their international obligations to ensure that the principles enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement have been entrenched. This has emboldened a section of the political unionists in Northern Ireland who have never reconciled themselves to the requirements of power-sharing and equality.
This section is the Democratic Unionist Party, formerly led by Ian Paisley and currently led by Arlene Foster. Since the DUP joined a governing coalition with Sinn Fein in 2007, the DUP has practically refused to engage in power-sharing.
The result has been 10 years of continuous attrition against the Good Friday Agreement by those unionists who still hanker after the era of unionist domination. The resulting instability seems to have reached a boiling point.
Not only has the DUP acted contrary to the principles underlying the peace agreement, it has also shown disregard for the Irish identity. An example is the fact that in December, a DUP minister responsible for funding Irish language projects in Northern Ireland withdrew funding for bursary schemes which would have assisted underprivileged children in learning Irish through intensive programmes.
While he withdrew £50000 from this crucial language project, two months earlier, he awarded £100000 to fund unionist marching bands.
Public anger has exploded over such disregard for the Irish identity, and this is coupled with massive anger over recent corruption allegations concerning a green energy scheme run by the department overseen by Foster.
The scale of the financial scandal in recent months has shown a gross misuse of public funding, with a direct net loss to the public purse of half a billion pounds. This is money that could have been spent on public services such as healthcare, education and infrastructure.
As a result of this scandal, Sinn Fein’s Joint First Minister Martin McGuinness, in consultation with his party, resigned his position last month, thereby rendering the political institutions inoperable.
Elections have now been called for March 2, in what promises to be a watershed election. Sinn Fein has warned that Northern Ireland’s political institutions will not be reinstated unless real political transformation takes place.
The election will ultimately become a plebiscite on the status quo.
This political crisis is further complicated by the mandate given to the British government to exit the EU, which the majority of the electorate in Northern Ireland are against. As Britain continues with its austerity measures, thereby reducing its public expenditure, it becomes increasingly difficult for authorities in Northern Ireland to deliver services.
Northern Ireland has not seen such a depth of crisis since the beginning of the peace process, after the Irish Republican Army first ceased its military operations in 1994. With the DUP hostile to power-sharing to begin with, the questions become whether that party will adhere to the Good Friday Agreement and commit to power-sharing, and whether the British and Irish governments will now fulfil their responsibilities to properly oversee the peace and political processes.
As the Yankees would say that covers all bases.
I would say a word-perfect analysis of the situation. We are at ground-zero as far as progress is concerned.The DUP are incapable of working in government ,so there is no real prospect of anyone sharing power with them.The British and Irish governments were also asleep at the wheel and allowed it all to slip through their fingers because of lack of any real interest.
Power sharing, I think, should be a bit like a marriage. Decisions should be discussed together and implemented together. We all know this does not always work but sometimes it does. But when the parties work independently and one lives upstairs and one downstairs it is a recipe for disaster. But if one party finds the other distasteful and even resents their presence in the house, where do you go? Counselling has been tried, divorce has been threatened, violence has been used, cheating abounds. Is it not time for a trial separation for a long long time. The time for promises and honeyed words are over. I think it’s time for somebody to go back to mammy.
Excellently put , fiosrach….Mammy will cure everything and put a poultice on that wee sore head!
What you might describe as a subjective analysis of the current crisis here. I think it’s imperative that we recognise the almost impossible reality of an internal resolution to the conflict in the North. Especially while we have England as the biased broker. I don’t want England involved in my country’s affairs. And I don’t recognise any institutions that try to give legitimacy to English involvement here. Unionists can harp on all they want but, they have no legitimacy either. They are in a sense bastards in a illegitimate relationship. How can any State have even a shred of legitimacy when it treats it’s own citizens so horrendously ? England’s long evil involvement in Irish affairs and, the annexation of part of our country, willingly assisted by their unionist planter agents, is what is responsible for all our woes. It’s time time to stop asking for permission to speak our language and fly our flag.
if you ever voted you give legitimacy to englands involvement here.
I never voted for England to be here. Isn’t that the point ? Also, there is nothing that gives any legitimacy to England being here. England is here illegally.
we know englands here illegally,but direct british rule or indirect british rule is still british rule no matter how you try and dress it up.and your giving it legitimacy partaking in lending your vote to it.maybe you can square it in your own head but it is what it is.
Would claiming a british pension or british welfare or any of their benefits give legitimacy to british rue here also then billy?
“I never voted for England to be here. Isn’t that the point ? Also, there is nothing that gives any legitimacy to England being here. England is here illegally.”
‘England’ isn’t here so your post makes no sense.
“we know englands here illegally,but direct british rule or indirect british rule is still british rule no matter how you try and dress it up.and your giving it legitimacy partaking in lending your vote to it.maybe you can square it in your own head but it is what it is.”
‘England’ isn’t here at all, never mind illegally.
“I never voted for England to be here. Isn’t that the point ? Also, there is nothing that gives any legitimacy to England being here. England is here illegally.”
‘England’ isn’t here so your post makes no sense.
Well MT ….We all know now what a pedant you are about the use of language but even you must realise what the less- constricted conversationalists are actually saying, surely, otherwise you might not engage at all. Without going into every “jot and tittle” ,to coin a current much-used phrase,we’ll assume you’ll be already aware what your companion in debate actually means when he refers to Britain as “the English” in that quaint old-fashioned way. Some on the “other island” are equally pedantic about that point too, of course, differentiating themselves by the sobriquets “Welsh” and “Scottish”…and sometimes even by county ….but you get his drift , I’m sure.I think he’s talking about that fellow Brokenshire , from Southend- On- Sea, an Englishman to the tips of his polished fingernails and currently ensconsced as Norneverland Secretary…a proper English Conservative gentleman.
“Well MT ….We all know now what a pedant you are about the use of language but even you must realise what the less- constricted conversationalists are actually saying, surely, otherwise you might not engage at all. Without going into every “jot and tittle” ,to coin a current much-used phrase,we’ll assume you’ll be already aware what your companion in debate actually means when he refers to Britain as “the English” in that quaint old-fashioned way.”
‘Britain’ isn’t here either.
Tell me MT…is it possible that you are on a spectrum?…I’m not being insulting …just curious.It is quite common but is oftengoes undiagonosed .You may not actually be aware , but it is my understanding that there is appropriate courses of treatment available to help in making it manageable and also enabling the unaware sufferer to eventually have conversations without resorting to punctuating and parsing every letter and line.It allows eventually for a more flowing exchange of ideas and opinions. There is still hope , you know.
Looks like the point has gone over your head.
Look MT, the world’s talking about Yiz.
Who do you pay your income tax to, and if you make any purchases, where does your VAT go?
Unfortunately to England, so for the moment, we’re lumbered with them!
So people who voted for Bobby sands did so to legitimise England being here?
You are a fool billy.
The nationalist electorate will increase insignificantly and anyone who refuses to give Sinn Fein a vote in this election isn’t fit to call themselves a republican.
should read “increase significantly”
you wont have to travel too far to see a fool.look in the mirror.
If, and when, you voted for Bobby Sands, were there Gardai or RUC outside the polling station?
We may not like the answer but that should give you a clue!
Doesn’t really matter, no one who voted for bobby sands voted to legitimise English rule
That is simply a false statement
“Doesn’t really matter, no one who voted for bobby sands voted to legitimise English rule”
They voted to legitimise a monstrous terror campaign and each and every person who did so should repent and seek forgiveness from.the victims or else hang their heads low.in deep.deep shame.
There’ll be NO hanging of Irish heads MT, that gesture is reserved only for England and the planters!
“England’s long evil involvement in Irish affairs and, the annexation of part of our country”
No of Ireland was annexed.
“It’s time time to stop asking for permission to speak our language and fly our flag.”
Why would anybody be asking such permission when it isn’t needed?
A very precise and insightful analysis from an outsider. We are well and truly back to the drawing board.
Excellent document and thank you Jude for letting us know.
All is not lost!! Vote Sinn Fein and Michelle will put manners on the DUP
See ya later alligator
The Irish government have always been intimidated by the Brits.
However if no agreement can be found after the election Dublin will have to step up to the plate.
I can’t see the Brits accepting Direct Rule for anything longer than a few months. They had a sickener of it in the 70s & 80s. & the last thing they need in the middle of Brexit is Tory MPs as ministers bogged down in Irish politics & running Stormont day to day.
They’ll drag Dublin into a joint authority deal to give them cover.
I agree, and the bigger the sinn fein vote the better for irish citizens it will be
Some people blame either the British or Irish government for allowing the DUP free rein to impose their bigotry.
But Sinn Fein were in government with then, supposedly as equal partners.
On his resignation, Martin McGuinness was lauded, eulogised, and almost deified by some – but does he deserve such plaudits?
Every time the DUP ignored the Good Friday Agreement, or trampled over it, and hectored Sinn Fein and their supporters, Marty was standing beside Robbo, and latterly Arlene with a sheepish expression on his face, having nothing to say while he was lectured, hectored, and put in the corner with the dunce’s hat on.
The first occasion, almost ten years ago, when the DUP broke the GFA programme, and either kicked out the Irish Language Act, or shut down the Long Kesh project, SF should have pulled the edifice down, and refused to go back into ‘power sharing’ until it was actual power sharing.
Whether keeping his mouth shut was Marty’s idea, or the supposed brains of the party, Sinn Fein let their supporters down by the bucketful – they shamed and embarrassed us!
I once felt the same way sherdy so I know where you are coming from.
But I can now see why they did what they did.
Exactly as you say, the whole world can see just how tolerant and even submissive Sinn Fein were to keep institutions that republicans find repulsive going, they did this with sincerity and in a genuine spirit of reconciliation – otherwise you and many others wouldn’t be so upset about it.
There is nothing the DUP or british state could say would offend me or make me give a damn about either.
What the southern establishment and their media supporters not to mention the behaviour of president higgins did upset me greatly however.
The real opponents of Irish unity are now in Dublin. What Sinn Fein have done over the past 10 years was clearly deliberate, expected and in fact had the UUP and DUP and unionism in general not behaved as intransigently as they did, we would be stuck with Stormont which most people would have been happy with, but others like myself would have had to stomach.
Time has been served and it is not you or any community response that is making Sinn Fein change their course. It isn’t changing one bit, it is a continuation of the same strategy of doing the right thing.
The fact that doing the right thing is now what I want, i.e. Stormont gone is all thanks to the DUP and unionism.
Only an idiot thinks being intransigent, saying no to everything, never never never politics is strong leadership.
Sooner or later the people will have had enough and kick back.
Strong leadership is taking the crap Martin McGuinness had to so the rest of is and our children wont have to ever again.
Sinn Fein will continue doing the right thing. It will make it difficult for the southern establishment to attack them over negativity and repeat the last election which would be more than I could take.
If unionism is incapable of reciprocating, then there will be no more devolved institutions which will eventually result in joint rule followed by gradual unification.
In my opinion, if anti Sinn Fein republicans cannot support Sinn Fein now, I don’t think you ever will again.
The direction Sinn Fein is going in is the right one in my view.
Jessica, once again,a perfect analysis of the situation regarding Sinn Fein and the reason why I am out canvassing every night in my own area for the first time in my life, I’m 51.
Same here Gearóid
The hardest part is over. Respect has been hard earned and now we will expect nothing less.
Have to agree,sherdy. It was only when the sheep got up on their hind legs before Christmas that the message got through. The threat of mass resignations put the wind up them. Voters were being taken for fools.
Aw c’mon now guys . To expose the bullshit it was necessary to give it an extended run .Every possible avenue had to be tested before closing it down. Surely you can see that? We didn’t just get one incident …we got several …..many ….many incidents every year for ten years and it hardly mattered except in degree who actually led the DUP.Their stupidity was evident at every turn. Every one of them messed their pants . There’s a long list of Poots ,the Robinsons , Arlene and every other one in -between.Now we have along list of scandals , misogynies, bigotries, racism and all the rest as examples to prove the point of the unworkability of the set-up with the DUP . Marty had to do that and stand in that flowing river of shit to expose it. It is the tree that bends with the river’s flow that survives to tell the tale .Marty all but survived to tell the tale.He then switched off the lights as he left the room.Point proven .
but.but.butttt.everything was grand just before xmas.a joint statement is on record singing their praises how well they were governing the wee province.only when the bbc exposed half of what was going on..thats when the lights went out.proven point.
All it proves to me is unionists are unable to share power with irish republicans.
Sinn Fein went further than most would have to keep hunky dory going, unionism fucked things up all on their own.
What better way for it to happen I say.
Yes, Jessica, unfortunately (from my position at least) the DUP have managed to mess things up all on their own and it has reflected poorly on the whole broadly unionist voting community.
From Smash Sinn Fein to Smash the Union, and all in a generation – it’s quite an achievement.
But…. anyone with a brain really knew that everything wasn’t grand before Christmas.The NAMA scandal was still brewing away and the RHI scandal was bubbling too.
why the lies then to the electorate proven in the fresh start agreement that all was grand.they all knew and now their trying to pish down the peoples backs and tell them its raining.
From a concerned citizen from Galway, you can talk all the rhetoric you want. While the DUP and UUP have a voting majority it will always be this way. That is just a fact.
You have to go back to the old ways of thinking….. breed them out of power!!! Bring more voters than “them” to the ballot box.
I may have broken every law in political correctness going but that is the only way to swing power as I see it. And then let “them” see what the word minority really means.
Loved reading this piece and all your contributions Jude.
Greetings from Belfast Stephen.
people have wised up about breeding 15kids in 2bedroom houses,while the ones encouraging them to breed had neither chick nor child.them days are gone.
Tories have just defeated Amendment 86 to any Brexit legislation which requires that triggering Article 50 does not break agreements in the GFA
https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/829407998091132938
The Tories have just torn up the Good Friday Agreement. Perfidious Albion, eh?
“The Tories have just torn up the Good Friday Agreement.”
How?
By voting to ensure that any agreements made in the future regarding Brexit can supersede any agreements contained within the GFA. But fuck ’em, they’re only Paddies, eh?
“By voting to ensure that any agreements made in the future regarding Brexit can supersede any agreements contained within the GFA. But fuck ’em, they’re only Paddies, eh?”
‘Can’ not ‘will’. In other words the status quo, since there was no law in place before last night to prevent the GFA being superseded (and there are.no laws preventing the ROI government from superseding it either – so by your logic the ROI government tore up the GFA too.
Of course in reality Brexit doesn’t affect the GFA, as the Supreme Court has confirmed.
‘Can’ not ‘will’ means that Westminster has carte blanche to do as it pleases with regard any agreements contained within the GFA. The 1998 referendum had 71% support in NI and 94% in the Republic, but Westminster has now given itself the option to ignore this. We don’t know what form any post-Brexit agreements will take, and the question of NI has yet to be adequately discussed by either British or Irish parliaments.
Implementation of the GFA included the removal of border controls, so their re-introduction post-Brexit is also in direct breach of the agreement. As Westminster has declared itself no longer bound by the GFA, then the re-introduction of border controls looks increasingly likely as Britain leaves the EU.
I fail to see how this logic dictates that the ROI government also tore up the GFA, so I can’t really debate that point with you. But yes, with no laws in place preventing either signatory from superseding the GFA, and power sharing no longer workable I suspect the GFA has indeed run its course. The behaviour of the British government appears to suggest they also believe this to be the case.
Great changes in the make up of the UK appear to be on the not too distant horizon, so it’s probably time for a new agreement relating to the administration of NI, the constitutional question and further devolution of powers between Dublin, London and Belfast. The GFA was only ever a stepping stone after all, and one that looks increasingly slippy by the day. I’ve long believed that Ulster Unionism’s final fight will not be with Irish Republicanism, but rather a British Government desperate to be rid of them. Be careful what you wish for, MT.
“‘Can’ not ‘will’ means that Westminster has carte blanche to do as it pleases with regard any agreements contained within the GFA.”
But Westminster already had carte blanche and so does the Dail. Yesterday changes nothing.
The absence of a specific law protecting an agreement doesn’t mean that an agreement is torn up. It remains a political obligation.
“The 1998 referendum had 71% support in NI and 94% in the Republic, but Westminster has now given itself the option to ignore this.”
It already had the option to ignore it, as did the Dail.
“We don’t know what form any post-Brexit agreements will take, and the question of NI has yet to be adequately discussed by either British or Irish parliaments.”
Brexit doesn’t affect the GFA.
“Implementation of the GFA included the removal of border controls”
No it didn’t. Border controls had been removed long before the GFA.
“, so their re-introduction post-Brexit is also in direct breach of the agreement.”
Border controls would not breach the GFA.
“As Westminster has declared itself no longer bound by the GFA,”
Westminster hasn’t declared itself no longer bound by the GFA.
“I fail to see how this logic dictates that the ROI government also tore up the GFA,”
It’s very obvious. Your argument is that the absence of a legal provision protecting the GFA means thatthe GFA is ‘torn up’. ROI has no such legal provision either, therefore it must also be torn up in ROI.
“But yes, with no laws in place preventing either signatory from superseding the GFA, and power sharing no longer workable I suspect the GFA has indeed run its course. The behaviour of the British government appears to suggest they also believe this to be the case.”
There has never been a law in place preventing either signatory from ‘superseding the GFA’. By your logic the GFA was torn up the very day it was agreed.
“Be careful what you wish for, MT.”
What an I wishing for about which I need to be careful?
“‘Can’ not ‘will’ means that Westminster has carte blanche to do as it pleases with regard any agreements contained within the GFA.”
In strictly legal terms that has always been the case. Brexit makes no difference. That’s the point. Same.applies to Dublin.
“The 1998 referendum had 71% support in NI and 94% in the Republic, but Westminster has now given itself the option to ignore this.”
Again, only in strictly legal terms and that was always the case as it is also for Dublin.
“We don’t know what form any post-Brexit agreements will take, and the question of NI has yet to be adequately discussed by either British or Irish parliaments.”
But we do know that it won’t affect the GFA.
“Implementation of the GFA included the removal of border controls”
No it didn’t.
“so their re-introduction post-Brexit is also in direct breach of the agreement.”
If border controls are reintroduced it owildmt be a breach of theAgreement either directly or indirectly.
“As Westminster has declared itself no longer bound by the GFA, then the re-introduction of border controls looks increasingly likely as Britain leaves the EU.”
Westminster hasn’t declared itself no longer bound by the GFA. Please don’t lie.
“I fail to see how this logic dictates that the ROI government also tore up the GFA, so I can’t really debate that point with you.”
Why not? The same legal position exists in ROI as it does in the UK. You claim it means the UK has ‘tore up’ the GFA, therefore you must also believe that ROI has ‘tore’ it up too.
“But yes, with no laws in place preventing either signatory from superseding the GFA, and power sharing no longer workable I suspect the GFA has indeed run its course.”
Why?
“The behaviour of the British government appears to suggest they also believe this to be the case.”
How?
“Great changes in the make up of the UK appear to be on the not too distant horizon, so it’s probably time for a new agreement relating to the administration of NI, the constitutional question and further devolution of powers between Dublin, London and Belfast. The GFA was only ever a stepping stone after all, and one that looks increasingly slippy by the day. I’ve long believed that Ulster Unionism’s final fight will not be with Irish Republicanism, but rather a British Government desperate to be rid of them. Be careful what you wish for, MT.”
What is it that I wish for about which you think I should be careful?
I think you’re correct RJC and the U.K. will now inevitably break up. I think wee Jimmy Cranky might be the very one to hasten its demise. I shouldn’t call her that because I do honestly think she’s the ticket.
Is the GFA not an international treaty registered with the UN? Surely if Britain breaks it then the free State can reinstate Articles 2 and 3?
“Is the GFA not an international treaty registered with the UN? Surely if Britain breaks it then the free State can reinstate Articles 2 and 3?”
The South can reinstate Articles 2 and 3 any time it likes. The GFA can’t be enforced. It’s a voluntary political agreement. ‘Registered with the UN’ is irrelevant.
“I’ve long believed that Ulster Unionism’s final fight will not be with Irish Republicanism, but rather a British Government desperate to be rid of them. Be careful what you wish for, MT.”
I wonder if you would address this particular point MT?