Well, that was quite an evening/night, wasn’t it? Just when you thought politics in our NE nest had become dour and tedious, along comes yesterday. Where to start?
- Perhaps with the term ‘sleeping giant’. Not that Sinn Féin weren’t a formidable force in our NEn before the election. Now, however, they know what they can do when its vote turns out: let’s remember that – LET’S REMEMBER THAT….On Wednesday’s ‘The View’, the pundits were giving the Shinners 24 seats, with the DUP at around 30 or 31. Not for the first time in the past year, the crystal ball gazers and the polls showed how, like everyone else, they haven’t a clue what’s going to happen at an election.
- This was a bad night for unionism. To have the bogeyman of Sinn Féin come within a percentage point and their seat-lead slashed from 10 to 1…Pass the smelling salts, Mother. But there’s nothing so bad there can’t be worse. It was a blitzkrieg of a night for the UUP. It lost seats and it lost its leader. To give Mike Nesbitt his due, he resigned with grace and dignity. It is a shame that his fluency wasn’t matched by his political savvy. But contrast his resignation words with the clumsy concession of Nelson McCausland. As readers of this site know, I have more than a small soft spot for Nelson, so it’s frustrating to see him look so forgettable in his final words. Wouldn’t it have been some consolation if he’d approached Nesbitt’s eloquence – or better still, the words of his namesake Horatio Nelson, who, mortally wounded by a musket-ball, murmured to Captain Tom Hardy the surprising final line “Kiss me, Hardy”. Farewell, dear Nelson, and try to think positive. Unlike Horatio, it’s unlikely anyone will attempt to pickle you in a barrel of brandy.
- The DUP will be already looking for a new leader. The trick would be if they could install one, thus making a fresh Executive possible, while not looking as though Sinn Féin is calling the shots. But then again, who could lead them? Nigel Dodds? (Sir) Jeffrey Donaldson? Sammy Wilson? Nothing too promising there. In fact, the paucity of leadership material in the DUP stands in stark contrast to the infusion of fresh talent, much of it female, into the Sinn Féin ranks.
- There’s a temptation to believe that things couldn’t have been much worse for the DUP, but they could. Last time out in Upper Bann, John O’Dowd almost lost his seat. This time, the determination was not to risk a repeat, which may explain the large number of first preference votes he got. Unfortunately, that left his running mate Nuala Toman short of what she needed. No wonder John O’Dowd, on a night of Sinn Féin jubilation, looked truly pissed off. But if Nuala Toman had gained that seat, and if veteran SDLP man John Dallat hadn’t come home at the last minute and snatched a final seat from Sinn Féin’s Cathal O hOisin, Sinn Féin could be on 29 seats instead of 27. But then all elections always include heart-aching might-have-beens.
- The thin ice on which the DUP now stand will send a tremor through unionism generally. The bogeyman Sinn Féin is now so close, they can feel hot breath on their collar. That should inject a note of courtesy into their dealings with the republican party: you don’t emerge alive from a car crash without rethinking the steps that led you to that scary place. If you have a death-wish, of course, you won’t change a thing.
Well done to all the candidates from Sinn Féin, SDLP, Greens, PBP and the Alliance. After 96 years of Unionist domination the nightmare is finally coming to an end. I think the north will be better off without a DUP/UUP majority. Progress can be made in so many levels. And once change happens I don’t think anyone will be interested in going back to the old ways.
Although I hope it doesnt happen – Arlene should fall on her sword and be replaced by Gavin Robinson, thus allowing Stormo to be put back together.
Putting Stormo back together is a bad idea from Nationalism’s point of view as ‘special status’ for NI within the EU should be the immediate strategic aim – and better enabled without the DUP in Stormo trying to frustrate it.
Had to laugh at that journalist last night ,i think it was fionnula oconnor getting stuck into sinn fein for having a good election,she waited untill there were no shinners on the panel though,the bitterness just oozed out.
You do understand that Fionnula works for the Irish News, which is the official organ of the SDLP, and at the time of her comments, the party were far off their final dozen.
Difficult to see Foster survive this result. She lost the DUP transfers while motivating apathetic nationalist voters.
I don’t think the DUP will jettison her until after negotiations and a period of direct rule – the DUP will push for another election prior to returning to Stormont a year or two down the line.
I suppose the question then will be can SF repeat the voter turnout ? The DUP have been chastened and will retreat to the comfort blanket of Tory rule for the time being. One thing is sure, Arlene Foster will not be FM again. She truly made a pigs ear of a great deck.
THE CRAICODILE IS 90
It was a time to choose, a time to lose
One’s perspective over a pair of shoes
While Jimmy Nails
Imelda Foster wails
Recuse me, where are the Dole Queues?
It will be interested to see what the next days and weeks bring. I think last night’s result poses as much an existential crisis for Unionism as a practical one. The state was created with the sole purpose of ensuring a Unionist electoral majority, which as of yesterday no longer exists. Who would have thought a dodgy boiler scheme could have such a profound effect?
The elephant in the room is of course Brexit. Even Leo Varadkar is tweeting his belief that the most significant element of the result is not the sectarian headcount, rather that c70% voted for parties that want to remain in the EU. This also further serves to undermine the position of the DUP. Taking the island as a whole, support for Brexit is minimal so why should the Tories be allowed to push through something that could potentially have catastrophic consequences for Ireland? They have absolutely no mandate here.
Interesting times.
If you don’t like it
54.6172° N, 5.9063° W
No return to Stormont
First they had a Unionist Majority
Then a Greater number
Now they have a majority of one
Joint Authority is the new SF bottom line
Talk about taking a tide at its flood. Unionism is in disarray, the tantrums from the denizens of the web tell its tale clearly.
As Jude points out – Foster has to go, but she will have to be made to go by the DUP. But then who replaces her? What have they got? Of course they can’t be seen to change leaders at the behest of Sinn Fein. It’s a brutal double bind they are in.
The DUP only has four weeks to sort it out before May triggers A50.
Unionism is so utterly screwed. What are they going to do if SF make a border poll before the UK leaves the EU?
If SF make a border poll a condition of going back into Stormont.
“Unionism is so utterly screwed. What are they going to do if SF make a border poll before the UK leaves the EU?”
I’ve mixed views when you put it that way.
Even though I’ve made my feelings clear enough about the inevitability of a United Ireland, I’m not just so sure that a first border poll will deliver it.
Yes, there are many variables, and yes, political unionism is all over the place (to put it mildly) but a straight Yes/No unity vote is a bit more difficult to call.
If there are still about 35% of people not voting, how much would a Border Poll change that; how many soft Nationalists would vote remain, even with Brexit; and how many soft Unionists would vote for Unity without the prospect of some kind of UK link?
Unionism is, currently, in a pretty poor state, but a Unity vote is a different thing.
Indeed, perhaps if Nationalists can take (should take) anything from this result it’s this: beware complacency.
Well get ready to be confronted about how wrong you are. For the last 15 years several of us anoraks have crunched the electoral & census data predicting this moment.
Nationalists are now a demographic majority in the north, within ten years that will translate into a political majority. There are no Catholic Unicorns, the DUP and Foster have systematically annihilated them.
Lucid Talk shows a lot of Unionists want to be in the EU. All it takes is 10% of Unionism to vote UI or just stay home and the numbers are there today to win a border poll. It would be a very close run thing.
The hard Brexit May is determined to deliver guarantees a healthy majority in a border poll in 18 months.
Really, I would have expected there still to be a protestant majority in 2021 though mostly in the over 65 age group.
Do you really believe anyone can predict the outcome of a referendum by crunching numbers without even knowing what the terms of reference for the poll will be?
I believe you are also an extreme far left socialist. How many people do you think want that type of Ireland on either side of the border?
Switching to an extreme economic view that has failed just about all over the planet and which you could not convince Catholics to support never mind protestants, would shake the whole foundations of the state, cause turmoil and probably wreck the economy of this whole island.
If enough people think the way you do gendjinn, the next election will be a complete reversal back in favour of unionism.
We have an opportunity for republicanism to play a key role in working the middle ground politics and developing a more prosperous future for all of Ireland. If it is thrown away over such complacency as you have expressed then it will be unforgivable.
I understand completely the desire for change and the need to belong in a nation of our own so much that it hurts, but now is not the time to get carried away.
The bottom line remains that only Dublin can unite this country and no matter what happens in brexit, the most important thing is that both parts of this island remain on the same page whatever that may be.
” For the last 15 years several of us anoraks have crunched the electoral & census data predicting this moment.
Nationalists are now a demographic majority in the north, within ten years that will translate into a political majority. There are no Catholic Unicorns, the DUP and Foster have systematically annihilated them.”
It would be helpful if you shared your working out with the rest of us. What makes you believe there is a ‘demographic’ nationalist (by which we presume you mean Catholic) majority?
I think you are right on this one PF . The timing is everything on a border poll and there has not yet been enough preparation done.The very idea of a border poll at this moment would be a shock for many and a lot of them would be in the south.
Joint authority has to be the fiture red line, gives the unionist consequences to colapsing or atempting to colapse any future north of irleand asembly
I couldn’t believe the speed at which Mike Nesbitt resigned as leader of the UUP, so think how shocked his party faithful and MLAs would have been, as he didn’t seem to have consulted them.
But, having seen him earlier in the day, wearing his Ulster rugby jacket, maybe he thought getting to the match on time was a greater priority.
Nelson’s concession ‘speech’ was a lesson in ‘how not to lose’ as graciousness was totally lacking.
But then he didn’t get the chance to walk the plank, as he was holed below the water line – an injury which must have adversely affected his vocal efforts.
You mention a few seats Sinn Fein might have won, but what happened to Oliver McMullan in East Antrim, who had held his seat in more difficult elections for SF?
The DUP still don’t appear to believe or even understand that they have done anything wrong.
They remain unfit to be in a power sharing government here and nationalists did not vote for a return to Stormont with unreformed unionist intransigence and belligerence in it.
The SDLP still cannot accept that nationalism blames the DUP/UUP and intransigent unionism for the failures leading to the election and not as they keep promoting a DUP/Sinn Fein coalition government. The problem was the DUP refused to accept it was a joint government and were doing their own thing, hence it was pulled down.
As for the Sinn Féin being a formidable force when their vote turns out.
I would like to point out Jude, it would be a mistake to believe that the vote they have rightly and deservedly received is theirs.
It is theirs to lose only.
Equality and respect are easy values to campaign on, and Sinn Féin have been given a mandate to stand firm against the british state on issues like truth and their veto on national security, the Irish language act and clarification on what the triggers are for a border poll.
They must not fail to deliver on this mandate and a return to Stormont is secondary to these issues.
I’m inclined to agree with you Jessica. The story cannot be so simple as to return us all to that same bloody muddle that we just left behind only weeks ago . This was a vote to demand partners in government who can comply with the agreements already made years ago and since reneged on many times over..That is not the DUP party as currently constructed , …. not by a long shot.
.Several of the members of said party have already said as much live on television over these past weeks…So they are really not fit to enter an Executive yet ,unless they get some form of political lobotomy first and the operation and treatment can hardly take place in a matter of a few weeks. They have serious catching -up to do ….some one hundred years of it by all accounts.In the meantime , how can they get rid of their worst leader ever in unionist history , without it looking as though Sinn Fein is telling them a truth that any competent politician should know already?
judes been telling us for months for voters to keep in their heads the only thing the elections about was rhi.
…and it was the RHI scandal that was the final focus,billy .That RHI scandal was the cherry at the very top of a festering badly baked cake of a long list of other scandals .Many of the bakers hadn’t even read the recipe book before they went into the kitchen twenty years ago so none of them were ready for Masterchef in the end..
The silence from the ‘letsgetalongerists’ (unionists) on here is deafening. What’s up?
Really?
Yip. Have you heard sight nor sound from Gio?
Hi Wolfie
It just seems too soon to be speculating really, but I will give you my first thoughts as you are missing me so.
It was entertaining alright so that was a plus for starters.
A good result, obviously, for the shinners and they deserve to celebrate, though I don’t like to see the inevitable gloating from some of our sillier commenters.
When the dust has settled we still have the DUP as the largest party and deadlock in the short term.
I can’t see Arlene stepping down immediately can you? Maybe after a decent interval, so she can say it is on her own terms.
Direct rule and on off negotiation seems likely for a while. Will SF call for a border poll? They might have to due to pressure from the grassroots but I am not sure they really want one just yet. A no result would still seem likely and that could bring everyone back to earth with a bump.
As for letsgetalongerists,or the Malcolms in the middle, they have, combined, 35 seats which is more than either of the two big parties, so they are still the majority!
We might look back at this moment as a significant turning point that is true, but iit is much too soon to say.
It may simply be another false dawn.
Arlene’s future should be left up to the DUP to sort in their own time gio.
There can be no return to the executive for them until they have proven themselves fit to share power with anyway, which can only happen over time, at least 24 months I would say.
This is not about wish lists, it is about doing what is right by all of our people.
There is nothing that the DUP have in their gift to offer that should allow them to step back into an executive in Stormont.
And yes, there is too much bullshit peddled on both the far left and far right.
Unity is becoming a reality and it is time for moronic economic philosophies to be challenged.
Can you imagine a border poll succeeding with idiotic comments such as nationalising Moy Park floating about?
It will indeed be the middle who determine what our futures will look like and Sinn Fein have the first opportunity to hold on to that section of our entire community (catholic and protestant). By now, Fianna Fail will have realised they have waited too long and if Sinn Fein fail, you can be sure Fianna Fail will not give them a second chance.
As for a border poll failing.
A border poll handled badly will result in a no, I will vote no myself if it is for a far left socialist piss hole.
If done properly with full buy in from the business community, the churches and commitments of support by both states and the EU then it will be resoundingly approved any day of the week and any time from here on in.
I have no doubt about that whatsoever.
The first step will be to get Dublin on board and making positive noises about it as an option if special status is not achievable, which I don’t believe it will be.
The EU are sensible negotiators, maintaining partition while asking to keep both parts of Ireland within the EU will not compute with them.
It will be like asking for a straight jacket to wear for a boxing bout.
Unionism to date has never had to justify Northern Irelands existence as a separate entity from the rest of Ireland. If we want to remain in the EU single market post brexit, they will have to do exactly that.
In my view partition makes no economic sense and the best solution would be to end partition and end the division of Ireland.
moypark will be closed after brexit,will it not.
hopefully not billy, I would rather we left the UK and remained in the EU
can we not go it alone…serving neither king nor kaiser.ten yrs of a hard border will clean the north f the country,the eu will be broke up in ten yrs and by that time the time will be right for a first time positive result in a border poll.sure ten yrs doesnt belong going in.just look at the last ten that was wasted up in stormont.
Tough day for Unionism WT and the DUP only have themselves to blame. Probably time for a border poll now with their being near parity in Stormont
DUP looks like they have finally killed of the UUP. They may as well merge now because there isn’t mush between them policy wise anyway.
The petition of concern can’t be deployed now and will probably be negotiated away anyhow. That can only be a good thing and issues around gay marriage and abortion can now be put to a proper democratic test without the artificial veto.
The SDLP done better than expected, but they are also close to consumed by SF. SDLP needs to find a way of putting clear blue water between them and SF.
All in all polarisation is the lesson from this election. We now have one big Unionist and one big Nationalist party.
With the POC gone we will now find issues that polarise the Nationalist and Unionists will be decided by the Alliance party. It’ll be like Belfast city council only Stormont style.
If the DUP and SF can’t find any accommodation then what? I reckon the SOS might be forced to run another election, which nobody wants but it seems to be the way he is playing this, straight from the procedural rule book.
If there’s another election will those SF voters turnout again to give the DUP a bloody nose or will they become fed up with the deadlock? Will SF incredible result only spur up the Unionist vote next time?
Who knows time will tell.
Scott, I can recall in the time, not so very long ago, the Alliance party refused to permit a Sinn Fein mayor of Belfast, what hope of progress in this decade?
When was this Mark?
c. 1998, the Alliance party refused to countenance a Sinn Fein mayor for Ireland’s second city, my thinking at the time was they wouldn’t have one about the place.
“DUP looks like they have finally killed of the UUP. They may as well merge now because there isn’t mush between them policy wise anyway.:
Nonsense.
In this election we had the clearest distinction between UUP and DUP in several years.
UUP has two more seats than Alliance so how can they be considered killed off while Alliance isn’t?
I agree, the party that has come out of the worst has been the DUP, ironically the party that received the most votes.
We have to ask, what does that mean?
Never say never as they say.
Where have all the Catholics who were going to vote DUP gone? You know over abortion and gay marriage.
That was the Russian hack.
DEORA go LEOR
Arlene F, a stóir, is mór an drogall
Atá orm sileadh mar chruachrogall
Ach tá deora go leor
Ar snámh im’ bheoir
Téigh go réidh, a stóir, ar an druga L.
Beoir ar an lá atá againn inniu?
Sea, beoir, Fiosrach, a chara,
Ach, ar ndóigh ní h-aon ghnáth-bheoir nach bhfuil thar moladh beirte atá i gceist. Ní beoir í seo atá cleachtaithe ar an scornach chomónta. Níor chraith an bheoir seo scámhóga riamh le diabhal an dríodair.
Ach, An Bheoir.
An Bheoir a sháraíonn Budweiser, Carlsberg, Heinieken, Farmageddon, Cisk, Kilkenny, San Miguel, Speakled Hen, Smithwicks, fiú, Dom Perignon féin.
An Bheoir nach bhfuil ar fail ar ór, ar airgead nó ar an Máistir-Cárta féin. An Bheoir gur ansa leis an saineolaí beorach sin, an crogall. An Bheoir a gcaitear ól nuair atá sí fuar, chomh fuar le srón an bhéair bháin sa Phól Thuaidh
An Bheoiri nach bhfuil ar díol. Sea, cinnte, an Bheoir ar a dtugtar:
-Dioltas.
An Bheoiri gurb í Dioltas an leagan gairid ar:
-Díoltas ar an Dá Rialtas (cois Life agus i Londain).
Cuir uait an ‘De Réir Dealraimh’ is í, gan dabht………
-Díoltas an Bheoiir is fearr ar Domhan !
Agus beidh, go deo na ndeor.
-Sláinte.!
Nó, mar a déarfadh an Cam-Bhéal agus é at tí an Díoltas a shlogadh siar:
-Slainte mhaith is Sláinte mhór !
–
“if Nationalists can take (should take) anything from this result it’s this: beware complacency.”
I agree completely Peter. gendjinn has already declared himself my implacable enemy and Donal Lavery considers me repugnant and has asked me not only to stop commenting on this site but to go and support Fianna Fail instead of Sinn Fein.
I am actually quite supportive of Fianna Fails recent stance on water charges and I would dearly love them to come and stand in the north, they will be guaranteed my vote somewhere along the line whereas currently I vote Sinn Fein only which is holding nationalism back as we lose out big time in STV elections.
I would actually be more comfortable uniting Ireland with someone like yourself Peter than with people like gendjinn and Donal based on engagements I have had with them on this site.
It is not only unionism which needs to change and I do believe Sinn Fein are up for that change but many more socialist elements within republicanism are going to be very disappointed when it happens.
The type of united Ireland you speak off Peter is very attractive to me and will be to a lot of people.
I hope we can continue to explore it on this site further and move away from extreme views which I am going to have to try harder myself to be considerate off.
Old habits die hard but die they must.
I intend to start with myself.
“The petition of concern can’t be deployed now and will probably be negotiated away anyhow.”
This is pure speculation Scott, but if we returned to the original GFA and each party put forward their own preference for 1st Minister and majority vote gets it.
Due to a mandatory coalition of the two largest declarations, i.e. unionist, nationalist or other. The two largest groups are still unionist and nationalist so the situation could arise where we have a Sinn Fein, Alliance, UUP coalition with the option for the SDLP to be part of it also.
If Alliance changed their nomination from other to unionist, Naomi Campbell could be deputy first minister alongside Michelle ONeill.
Alternatively, if Alliance refused to nominate unionist, perhaps Mike Nesbitt could be persuaded to come back as leader of the UUP and take up the position of deputy first minister instead.
The DUP have isolated themselves and I think this would be the best way to get Stormont back and would have a better chance of getting the necessary agreements to do so.
Jessica, I always respect your analysis so, in light of that, would you agree arrogance rather than policy led to a substantial fall in DUPper vote?
The thing is Mark it didn’t cause the DUP vote to fall. DUP arrogance and political/economical ineptitude angered and energised a huge upturn in turnout which voted mainly SF and partly Alliance. Across the board most parties votes held relatively steady but SF got the surge from turnout.
How many of them are committed SF supporters and how many simply wanted to give the DUP a bloody nose we shall see at the next election.
The issue of ‘committed SF supporters’ is, now, down to Sinn Fein, retention of, what are often termed ‘lent votes’ is now down to three weeks of negotiation to carry.
If Sinn Fein, despite a frightened media, can show they negotiate in good faith, there votes will remain next time out, perhaps in May, but, and again I am no fan of Sinn Fein, the media, RTE and BBC, will devil them now, not in the Barrister sense, then again, in any forthcoming referendum on re-unification, it is all up in the air.
Brexit frightens some Unionist, equally, the crap health and education systems in the twenty six counties, has little appeal to anyone, my suspicion is, regardless of potential outcome, in c. eight years, Stormont is here to stay, just as a Unionist comfort blanket.
As before though, the potential to perpetually control the Oireachtas, should appeal to Unionism.
Report in this mornings press that Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal, even Poland might leave the EU, would permit political Protestantism to control this.
Jessica
I’m not sure if either the UUP or the Alliance could have any legitimacy at holding either the First or deputy First minister positions with their vote share.
The changes you mention are fundamentally pretty big and in my opinion would need a referendum to change the GFA agreement to that level.
I’d personally like the name changed to joint First ministers, to more accurately reflect what they are. Also a change back to them being elected on a joint ticket by the assembly. Basically more like the pre St Andrews arrangement.
Naomi Campbell? don’t you mean Long
Oops, thanks for correcting that Hoboroad
I don’t believe the DUP vote fell whatsoever at all Mark, in fact if anything it held up disgustingly well.
The last election was an electoral peak for unionism, as we have been saying for some time was coming.
The total unionist votes fell by 50000 in under 12 months but this is unrealistic. If you discount the switch to alliance from UUP votes you will get an idea of the actual fall in unionist votes.
The biggest change was disgruntled nationalist and more importantly middle catholic voters who turned up and voted for Sinn Fein – many for the first time.
The biggest reason for this was indeed DUP arrogance in particular Arlene Foster. That would have been the most common view expressed on the doorsteps.
Brexit is another major view, there are very real fears in a return of the border as you know.
There is no stomach for a return to Stormont with the DUP.
The biggest risk for nationalists now is complacency as Peter correctly says.
Unionism have been complacent over the demographic change.
Jude has already claimed the current Sinn Fein vote as being theirs. This is so untrue and I spoke to so many people who would not normally have voted for Sinn Fein who said they would this time. Very few of those were socialists or even republicans.
It is not a time to get carried away but to think and make sure we don’t make the same mistakes unionism has made.
From what I have heard from Sinn Fein so far, it appears they remain ahead of us all and have no intentions of screwing things up.
Their only screw up in this election was in upper bann.
Had they taken the two seats there they would have topped the poll. This needs to be seriously scrutinised and addressed.
“The total unionist votes fell by 50000 in under 12 months but this is unrealistic.”
Not sure if this is right Jessica. Total DUP, UUP and TUV first preference votes were 313,000 in 2016 and 349,000 in 2017. A 36,000 increase which doesn’t include independent Unionists or the NI conservatives, although they are very small.
Either my maths or Wikipedia is letting me down. Lol.
“. A 36,000 increase which doesn’t include independent Unionists or the NI conservatives, although they are very small”
When it comes to independent Unionists Scott they would be just on a few thousand votes each, if even that. When it comes to NI Conservatives, you may as well just disregard their votes, they barely get past double digits. I believe the NI Tory who stood in Fermanagh or Tyrone didn’t get beyond 40 or 50 votes. The same for the Tory who stood in East Belfast. One commentator made the point that NI Tories scored higher in West Belfast last year…..
Its interesting. If I was a Unionist, I would be keen to get an all UK party elected to the Assembly, like the Tories. That would make NI politics look more like Britain’s, hence “more British”, especially given the Tories are in power in London. But Unionists don’t seem to think like this.
Nationalists/Republicans think differently. Sinn Fein obviously runs candidates North and South. Republicans often chide the SDLP for not running candidates in the South. Fianna Fail is registered in the North but still haven’t run candidates and they get chided often by SF too for not contesting elections yet. As a Republican, I would be very keen for Fianna Fail to get elected to the Assembly or even Council areas because they are a Southern based party, hence making NI politics “more Irish”, even if its at the expense of Sinn Fein.
Just interesting how Unionists/Republicans think differently.
I agree completely
Let’s hope they inherit the courage to do so soon
Don’t hold your breath.
What is holding them back do you think mark?
Was the problem in Upper Bann poor vote management, given Lurgan, parts of Craigavon and Obins St. are largely Nationalist?
They fucked up in craigavon mark
So it will be sorted in May.
It is being sorted yes.
“Was the problem in Upper Bann poor vote management, given Lurgan, parts of Craigavon and Obins St. are largely Nationalist?”
I wondered that too Mark, there’s a large nationalist population in Upper Bann. Maybe the issue is getting them out to vote and vote management. I have family in Lurgan. Despite having 8 cousins there over the age of 18 and an aunt/uncle, none of them bother to vote.
We have seen an increase in the nationalist electorate in this election but there’s still a lot of nationalists who don’t vote and SF/SDLP need to get those voters out.
I first voted in 1982, Prior assembly, I recall turning up at local national school where both Unionist parties had caravans making tea and car’s ferrying elderly voters to the polling station.
Unless Nationalism learns this now, we’ll die in occupied Ireland.
“The total unionist votes fell by 50000 in under 12 months”
No it didn’t. The total unionist vote increased.
“If you discount the switch to alliance from UUP”
What switch? The UUP vote increased.
Yes, I have given up on the number crunching MT.
My own base line would have been a steady decline towards there still being a protestant majority of over 30000 by 2021
How to put a figure on this decline within that is beyond my capability.
Ignoring the sub anomalies such as how to identify unionist from nationalist, religion, location etc… all flawed already and with the boundary changes.
How many nationalists are eligible but don’t vote, how many unionists likewise. How many are eligible to be eligible.
The percept increase in unionist votes compared to nationalist votes compared to the change in pools of those eligible to vote but don’t and yes it is almost impossible to determine.
In the end I don’t think we should try to.
There does appear to have been a phenomenal shift.
As a result, I believe Sinn Fein have a lot to gain if they get things right, but they have a hell of a lot more to lose if they get things wrong.
“There does appear to have been a phenomenal shift.”
I don’t think it’s phenomenonal. I think it was primarily down to the increased nationalist turnout.
Also unionist losses west if the Bann were inevitable with the move from six to five seats.
And then don’t forget two nationalist seats and one Green seat were only possible because of unionist transfers.
I could be wrong Scott, but I thought the GFA’s original terms were based on majority votes on the assembly floor and it was St Andrews that changed that?
The DUP will no longer have four ministers around table: They will drop to three – the same as Sinn Féin. The UUP and SDLP will have one seat each.
Would that not be a return to the status quo?
In my view that would be still letting the DUP get away with it all
Isn’t all about timing though playing along with them till the timing is right then boom border poll.I believe in the run up to the escape from Long Kesh didn’t the prisoners pretend to be model inmates in order to lure the guards into a false sense of security. Made the escape a whole lot easier.
Yesterday really was a truly fantastic night for Republicanism and a crushing blow for Unionism. As Jude rightfully points out, Sinn Fein could have took other seats if it weren’t for the SDLP pipping them to the post.
Many high profile Unionists lost their seats. Danny Kennedy said “the Sinn Fein vote washed me away”. Danny’s friend, the infamous Willie Frazer, was on his facebook page damning “RC’s” aka “Roman Catholics” for voting for the “butchers of our people”. Willie went further in his sectarian bile and said all “middle of the road unionists” (moderates in other words) should see “RC’s” voting for “terrorists”. In other words, he was demonizing Catholics for using their democratic vote…. Its interesting to note Willie didn’t use the term “Republicans” as he usually does but “RC’s” this time. Such talk was/is rampant in Unionist terror squads and used as justification in mass sectarian murder of Catholic civilians by the UVF/UDA.
For the first time since the creation of our NE Nest, Unionism has lost its majority in the Assembly. Brian Feeney, the Journalist/Commentator, said on UTV that Unionism will never get that majority back in future elections. I agree with him. As Republicans have said for a long time, the demographics are changing and the main Unionist parties have ignored that, buried their heads in the sand and pretended that 1690 could return. In doing so, they cheated and misled their own electorate and will now be in turmoil. Will the DUP/UUP change their ways now? will they adopt reconciliation and reach out to Republicans? One branch of Unionism will want to, another branch certainly wont.
Mike Nesbitt, wanting to go moderate and remove sectarianism from our politics, has joined the list of Unionist leaders rejected by their electorate for wanting to be fair and progressive to all communities here. I wasn’t MikeTV’s biggest fan but he was an intelligent man and he is one of those Unionists who could see the Nationalist majority looming and wanted to accommodate nationalists because, lets face it, its the only hope Unionism has to save their Union.
I predict a very bitter internal battle within Unionism in the near future. One wing will see accommodating Republicans as the best way of saving the Union, the other wing will want to hide behind the battlements, put down the portcullis and scream No Surrender. Who will win? Well, Historically the Unionist extremists always won over the Unionist moderates hands down. Poor MikeTV is their latest victim…..
PS: its interesting to note that its likely now that by the 100th Anniversary of the NI statelet’s creation there could be a Nationalist majority in the Assembly. Of course that’s assuming NI even exists by then……
I think there are still many unionists who still don’t accept the demographic has changed ryan
Or even that the unionist vote decline has already begun
By the time they realise it will be too late
“By the time they realise it will be too late”
I agree Jessica. They are burying their heads in the sand. Edwin Poots little speech last night on the BBC proves that he just doesn’t get it. Even now, he still doesn’t get it.
As noted by one commentator in a book: There is a politics of “Doom” in Unionism. Paisley stoked up Unionists on prophecies of “Doom” during the Troubles. There was never any talk of Compromise, Hope, Fairness for all, Equality for All, etc. There was only talk of Fighting, Domination, Religious Fundamentalism, etc Paisley spread the utter lies of Catholic Priests holding sway over Protestants or other ridiculous claims if there was Irish Unity. Of course Paisley wasn’t the first to hate preach, it goes back centuries in Unionism.
Its this toxic legacy is why Unionism cant accept the current reality Jessica. Most, not all though, still see anything less than a Unionist/Protestant dominated North as defeat.
If they consider even talking about it as defeat what hope do they expect to have?
Ryan, I am afraid it’s not simply Willie and his ilk whom think on these lines.
Twenty one years past, the night following the election to the forum I dandered down my street, then I was one of four Catholics living in my street, two of whom are my children, two old neighbour’s were standing at their doors, in a middle class area of Belfast south, complaining ‘do you see who the Fenian’s voted for’? Response, ‘Yes, they’re all the same’, glad to say, we are but, largely,so are they.
Perhaps Willie can be investigated for online hate speech?
“Perhaps Willie can be investigated for online hate speech?”
He could Mark. Indeed Willie has been approached before by the media/PSNI due to his whacky comments. Amongst his most notorious was proclaiming a Catholic Primary School to be an “IRA recruitment camp” or something like that because the school was flying an Italian flag which Willie mistook to be an Irish flag. (The school was welcoming Italian visitors, hence the flag).
Willie once complained to the BBC because an actress in EastEnders soap opera was wearing an O’Neill’s jersey which Willie thought was a GAA jersey but which was in fact a Ballymena Secondary School PE Kit jersey. Yet again, Willie made a fool out of himself.
Willie is currently being sued by former Labour MP George Galloway because of a video he made in which he calls Galloway a “tramp” and accuses Galloway of supporting the beheading of British/American civilians and soldiers. The case is still ongoing and I haven’t heard any more from it for over a year but Willie appealed in a separate video for donations for his court case and said his home could be at risk due to the prospect of him being forced to pay damages to Galloway. I am glad to say that I alerted Galloway via twitter to Willies video. Galloway thanked me for it.
I could go on. Yes, Willie is a nutty character. I don’t mean to insult the man but I literally believe he’s senile and just wedded to the past. But his comments (and his followers/supporters) are very dangerous and he should be subjected to the law if he steps out of line.
Thank you for that Ryan, please don’t say this person is senile, good grounds for a defence.
“Senile ” ?….He’s only a youngster …born in 1960!! There might be a crack in the pot alright, but I’m not sure it’s age that has cracked it.
“Yes, Willie is a nutty character. I don’t mean to insult the man.”
Hilarious.
The fact that the DUP got the largest total number of first preference votes shows that they support the financial skulduggery of that party!
Red Sky, NAMA, £5m to the UDA, £500m for RHI and £400k for Brexit – if the DUP were as expert in politics as they are in handling money, we would not need to worry about austerity!
It suggests there is still a strong sense of fear among unionists about republicans being in power. It would have been better had Sinn Fein came out as the largest party but the votes for Delores Kelly stopped that happening by less than 1200.
The best way for unionists to lose this irrational fear is for republicans to be the largest party and show them they have nothing to fear.
What I would like to see is a voluntary coalition of SF, UUP and Alliance with the DUP and SDLP in opposition.
It was only a few weeks ago the nationalists here were united in proclaiming Alliance as a unionist party.
Odd that this has suddenly been forgotten amidst the references to unionists losing their majority in the Assembly.
Jessica even considers the SDLP to be unionist, so by her own definition, there is a stonking unionist majority at Stormont. For the rest of you, there is a unionist majority of 3.
It would depend on how you define what is a unionist.
As for stonking majorities, the election has returned a greater pro EU majority and that has to be the most important stonking majority there is to consider.
“It would depend on how you define what is a unionist.”
Obviously. And you defined unionist as including Alliance and SDLP.
In my eyes there remains a unionist majority and yes both the Alliance and SDLP are pro union parties.
I have already said, if we allow the election result to go to our heads and start believing there is a nationalist majority when there isn’t one, then next time out it will be a complete reversal and a return to unionists winning the day.
In terms of Alliances own position on the union as being neutral, they have taken themselves out of the wall of objection to be overcome and therefore the unionist majority has been lost.
All it would take to restore it would be Alliance to declare as unionist or a shift in support back to the UUP from alliance.
The unionist majority here remains, that is the reality and that is how sensible republicans should see it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-northern-ireland-2017-39168287
I think Gavin would be an excellent DUP choice of leader – and for that reason I hope he doesnt get it.
MT, I think that is fair point – but in assembly terms they dont designate as ‘Unionist’ so in terms of Stormo there is no Unionist majority.
Part of the ‘problem’ for Alliance is that many Unionists and especially ‘loyalists’ dont view Alliance as Unionists because they are ‘neutral’ on many issues and dare I say ‘fair’ on issues like parading and flags.
.
“MT, I think that is fair point – but in assembly terms they dont designate as ‘Unionist’ so in terms of Stormo there is no Unionist majority. Part of the ‘problem’ for Alliance is that many Unionists and especially ‘loyalists’ dont view Alliance as Unionists because they are ‘neutral’ on many issues and dare I say ‘fair’ on issues like parading and flags.”
Yes of course.
Just pointing out how the nationalist posters here have suddenly changed their tune.
Sinn Féin got an enlarged mandate because they pulled the plug on a purposeless and ineffectual executive…..the almost inconceivable arrogance and ineptitude of the DUP allowed them to do this and still maintain the confidence of their electorate. I believe that there is no desire to see it re-instated any time soon and I’m sure the political boffins in SF are very aware of this. Without being complacent I think we should hang tight until Art 50 in triggered and we see the complexities and convolutions of Brexit. I don’t think anyone is aware of the entanglements that it may throw up but if a “hard border” is one of them that will certainly temper support for a UI. I believe we have reached a critical mass where Unionism has lost it’s position of authority and we must keep a steady hand on the tiller to maintain our advantage.
MT,
As a nationalist myself I have to admit to a bit of doublethink myself on that – when it has suited me.
The Newsletter has probably signed Arlene’s death warrant by describing the result as a ‘disaster for Unionism’. I think the Newsletter had navigated a reasonable path before the election in terms of criticism of the DUP. – and their words now carry more weight because of that.
Gavin for me would be a very good choice – who is your tip and separately preferred choice?
“Gavin for me would be a very good choice – who is your tip and separately preferred choice?”
The problem is Robinson isn’t an MLA and also doesn’t have a safe Westminster seat.
My choice would be Paisley Jnr, but he isn’t an MLA either.
Nobody else stands out as genuine leadership material.
MT, the DUP have a 6 point lead in East Belfast in these elections- in very difficult circumstances. In a GE they would mop up PUP and TUV votes as well. In the GE he had about 6 point lead as well. I would call that safe.
Not sure the leader needs to be in the assembly – but that may be show stopper.
“MT, the DUP have a 6 point lead in East Belfast in these elections- in very difficult circumstances. In a GE they would mop up PUP and TUV votes as well. In the GE he had about 6 point lead as well. I would call that safe.”
In a general election they will require another unionist pact to hold on.
MT,
Yes fair point – I think it unlikely that a pact will not be in place but is admittedly a point against Gavin which I had forgotten about.
The ‘talent’ (so to speak) within the DUP would apear to be at Westminster. The extent to which either Paisley, Dodds or G Robinson want to return to the grubby little world of NI politics is debatable. I imagine sitting in Westminster is somewhat more enjoyable than turning up to a meeting of a Carrickfergus community group on a wet Wednesday in November.
My gut tells me that Foster will attempt to brazen this out, and then try to pin the blame on SF for collapsing the institutions if they refuse to go back in with her. I can’t see that playing well though, plus it leads to a second election which could potentially damage the DUP (and by extension Unionism) even more than this one has. Tricky. A post Article 50 May election in the face of a revitalised nationalist electorate is unlikely to look like an appealing prospect.
The beleaguered Foster is in an unenviable position. To stand aside risks being seen as capitulating to Republicanism, yet to remain risks even further damage to Unionism. I suspect there are quite a few angry old OO/RBPers who see the election result as proof of what happens when you let a woman out of the kitchen…
I wonder if Arlene Foster could roll back to December would she perhaps see Martin McGuinness’s friendly advice to her any differently?
very well put eolach
“I believe that there is no desire to see it re-instated any time soon and I’m sure the political boffins in SF are very aware of this. Without being complacent I think we should hang tight until Art 50 in triggered and we see the complexities and convolutions of Brexit.”
I should think the DUP dropping below 30 will be am encouragement to get the Assembly back.
No MT.
It is more than their abuse of the petition of concern, it is their whole attitude and contempt displayed over many years that means there will be no support for them returning to a single seat at the executive whatsoever.
Sinn Fein did not receive a mandate to allow that to happen and it would be a grave mistake for them if they did.
“It is more than their abuse of the petition of concern, it is their whole attitude and contempt displayed over many years that means there will be no support for them returning to a single seat at the executive whatsoever.:
You’ve missed the point.
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