Many people who are nationalist/republican rolled out of bed this morning feeling appalled. Not, if they are nationalist, because the SDLP was obliterated at the polls two days ago. And not, if they are republican, because they stayed up too late last night still celebrating the three extra seats Sinn Féin scooped in the recent Westminster election. They’re feeling appalled – and maybe appalling as well, yes indeed, Virginia – because against all the odds, the DUP have emerged as the king-makers at Westminster. They have raised the flute, oul’ Orange or non-denominational, to their lips and Theresa May’s Tories are anxiously preparing to dance.
I have heard a range of demands discussed. Some have said they’ll want new hospitals, new roads, new investments. Which would be good, even if they were built in solidly unionist areas. It’s unlikely that such hospitals or roads would have check-points requiring people to recite the first few words of the Our Father before allowing them to use these facilities.
Others have said the DUP will use their power to squeeze a commitment to a soft, porous border between the north and the south of Ireland. Again, that’d be fine: Irish people in both jurisdictions would benefit from that being wrung from the Tories.
But one suggestion which truly alarmed me was that the DUP’s price for sustaining the Tory government would be a return to majority rule here. The thing that might to outsiders seem a return to normality, to a lot of us here would set alarm bells jangling very, very loudly. The last time unionism worked within such a majority rule system here, they spent fifty years blocking nationalists/republicans from all positions of power and deformed the democratic process. If there’s one thing to be appalled about, certainly for the near future, it’s a return to majority rule.
Another suggestion I’ve heard is that the DUP could use their control to cut through the Gordian knot that is Arlene Foster. If you can think back to what seems like an age ago, Arlene was under the cloud of the RHI scandal, and an inquiry had been set up, which might take months or longer to complete its work. In the meantime, Sinn Féin have made it clear that they won’t go back into the Executive at Stormont with Arlene as First Minister. But what if this was solved by giving Arlene a place in the Tory Cabinet? Yes, quite right, Virginia – Arlene is not an MP. But if she were a Lord – oops, a Baroness, say – she could become a Cabinet member. Which would be a big golden handshake for the DUP leader and at one stroke resolve the impasse of Sinn Féin voting down Arlene as First Minister.
Stranger things have happened. And just think of the uproar she’d provoke with Boris and Philip and Amber…
I think the British public are going to make mince meat out of Arlene, and her party.
It has been great fun explaining to our English neighbours who the DUP are and what they stand against. The reactions are really hilarious
May even considering a coalition is going to do considerable damage to the dup as it will expose them to the spotlight of the outside world!
Majority rule would not be unionist rule necessarily.On the basis of the March results ,a non Unionist government could have been formed.
“But one suggestion which truly alarmed me was that the DUP’s price for sustaining the Tory government would be a return to majority rule here.”
Who made that suggestion?
The redtops where you get all your information.
Care to elaborate?
Just telling you where the story comes from.
A link or quote would be useful.
At the moment all we have is, “Some have said …”, “Others have said…”, “one suggestion…” and “another suggestion…”, which is not exactly… credible.
So you might consider providing a link, if you have one.
PF
Jude is not too fussed about links.
What is your view on this (non) coalition?
It seems to me if the DUP can play it smart they might get some benefit for the short term at least.
Much is being made of how the UK media and so on will expose them to a spotlight but if they stay in the background that might die down.
After all they are not interested in changing policy UK wide, only with parochial concerns.
The tories could make gay marriage compulsory in England and I don’t think the DUP would care greatly as long as they have an opt out for NI.
If they are smart they will keep quiet and just turn up to lend their votes when required to do so.
They will need to be careful to avoid any pictures of DUP representatives lighting bonfires. And of course they need to put more distance between themselves and the UDA.
I am not sure if they will be able to avoid hitting the self destruct button though so it will be interesting to watch.
The danger for SF is they look a bit sidelined at the minute.
They have no influence in Westminster even though they could have saved us from a tory/DUP government. Thanks lads!
The assembly looks dead to me.at least for now,so they are only left with building their influence in the South.
How will their support here hold up if they are not seen to be doing anything much?
” They have no influence in Westminster even though they could have saved us from a tory/DUP government. Thanks lads! “……that auld maggot ridden crow again….you didn’t vote Sinn Féin , but those that did gave a strong mandate for SF to carry on abstaining ….what Irishman ( apart from the DUP ) in 2017 , could possibly swear an oath of allegiance to a foreign monarch….literally stating ‘ I am your subject….you have the right to rule over me ‘….How ,please explain , do SF look sidelined at the moment ? wishful thinking perhaps?…..” How will their support here hold up if they are not seen to be doing anything much? “This sentence is a conundrum to me , do you honestly believe that the shenanigans in Westminster , between the DUP and the Tories , will outlast the summer ? Using all they can muster they now have a very shaky majority of 3 . open revolt in the ranks with knives being sharpened as we speak and a rejuvenated Labour party chomping at the bit. The arrogance of May is only equaled by that of Foster and they both possess that uncanny ability of knowing everything except the height of their own stupidity !
Eolach
I agree the whole thing could fall apart at any time but on the other hand it might stumble on for a while.
In the meantime I cannot see how SF have much influence as things are.I did explain that already.
Do you disagreed that their influence in Westminster is minimal at best?
With no assembly how do they propose to get things done for their voters?
Please explain how they will argue their case or bring in any policy initiatives.
Perhaps the wishful thinking is yours!
Gio
For some reason my comment made in reply to your question has not made it through.
You will understand if I don’t go to the bother of trying again.
I even noted a personal point of agree met with Gerry Adams – but it is what it is.
PF
No problem. Maybe it will turn up.
On what do you agree with Gerry? Are you also a hugger of trees?
Gio
I think that when Gerry suggested that arrangements between unionists (Ulster and British) always end in tears, he was both correct and too close for comfort.
I can also say that while I like trees, I don’t often hug them.
No SF could have NOT “saved us from a TORY/DUP government.The TORYS /DUP won a clear majority of the seats and could not be beaten by any other combination evenif SF took their seats.Is the spreading of “fake news” now part of your contribution to this site GIO?
What are the sums. I thought 650MPs.
Less the speaker = 649
Less Sinn Fein = 642
So 322 required for a majority.
Tories have 318
Plus DUP 10 = 328 which is 6 over majority
So 7 Sinn Fein could have made a difference
Maybe I’m wrong Michael C
You say 7 Sinn Fein could have made a difference.
But had they taken the oath the total number of MPs would have gone up again to 649.
Which means 325 would be needed for a majority.
Ergo 318 Tories plus 10 DUP would give 328 – a majority of 3!
So Sinn Fein could not have made a difference, but they would have sworn fealty to a foreign monarch for nothing!
Sherdy
I think that is right and they would still have had a working majority of 3. I think May would have had trouble forming a government on that basis and her own party might have advised against it.
All speculation now of course.
Your sums are wrong sir. You’ve already factored SF 7 seats but tried to take them twice. A double entry methinks. 318 Tory and 10 DUP is 328. Excluding the speaker and SF that’s still an overall majority
I see I’m being moderated again.
Wonder why?
Know what, I am wrong.
650 MPs
Less speaker 649
325 for a majority
Torys 318 plus DUP 10 = 328
No catching them.
Yes you are wrong Martin.. Torys + DUP = a majority over all possible combinations.326 NEEDED FOR AN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY. DUP / TORYS HAVE 328 GIVING THEM A MAJORITY OF 2 EVEN IF SF ATTENDED.
Had youse all going there for a while
michael
If SF had taken their seats the tories combined with DUP would have had a tiny majority requiring only a swing of 3 or 4 in any vote for them to lose.
I do not think they could have formed a government in those circumstances.
Move on Gio. Your advice and concern for SF, although welcome by SF I am sure, is irrelevant. The people have spoken and they have voted for SF, knowing that they wouldn’t take their seats in westmonster. Respect the decision and mandate of the electorate is the democratic thing to do, surely?
wolfie
What should I move on from?
Of course I respect the mandate.When did I say otherwise?
I am simply speculating, as we all are, on what will happen next.
Do you see any prospect for the assembly returning?
If not where does that leave SF?
I think Michael is right Unionist would be silly to call for majority rule, voting patterns would have a nationalist coalition within 5-10 years. But maybe that republican spy influencing the DUP will get them to suggest it.
Just seen Andrew Marr ask a tory MP about the DUP getting support from UDA,UVF and RHC and lin.king it tomedia shit storm thrown at Corbyn.Said Tory very uncomfortable indeed. This whole situation is beginning to pan out in a way that can only be described as hilarious
Saw that Michael C and very disappointed that Marr failed to press Falon on “present” links to Loyalist thuggery. Falcon wiggled out of it with some flannel about their links being in the past. He let him off very lightly and I suppose we can expect more of that, but my feeling is that it will be on balance a good thing for the English to meet the DUP head on. They might get an inclination of what all decent people in 6 counties are up against.
Since the ascendency of SF & DUP power blocks, Northern nationalist’s and republicans have now achieved the following;
NO Stormont
NO representation to fight the DUP/Tory alliance in Westminster.
AND Martina Anderson to most eloquently fight our corner in Europe.
How much further can we regress from the hopes and aspiration’s we all felt at the time of the GFA.
It seems as though in the past 19 years, the DUP from standing outside the gates have achieved most all of what they set out to do at that time.
I already yearn for the days when we had an influential John Hume in Europe, a sharp minded Seamus Mallon in Stormont and a hard working Margaret Ritchie in Westminster.
However the people have spoken and we must move on, but to where? Probably best to somewhere else as I cannot see any true reconciliation forthcoming between the two big parties and by inference their electorate, any time soon. They will both hold their noses and tolerate each other whilst each endeavours to smash the other.
Martin
Certainly in terms of uniting Ireland SF appear to have achieved virtually nothing since the GFA.
in fact if they had disbanded at that time,demographics alone would have brought us as close without them as we are with their efforts, and possibly closer since many many non-voters or soft unionists might have come round to the idea of unification but for them.
Gio, sadly we have all come to understand that there is no such thing as a ‘soft unionist.’ They are a figment in the same way as catholic unionism. To be counted on one hand. Soft unionism will only accept nationalism when it has divested itself of; Irish language, Irish flag ( they’ve actually argued that the tricolour be replaced), refrain from celebrating the Easter rising because they don’t like it etc etc. I am now depressingly of the opinion that I will just wait for the Nationaist electorate to grow slowly but surely.
…….so they can divest unionists of their flag, of their celebrations
This is why the SDLP lost the election Michael.
Sorry Martin
Yes SDLP lost the election but I cannot see how progress can be made when the raison d’etre of the two big parties is to out bash each other when given the oportunity. DUP do not practice compromise and tolerance and it is beginning to appear that Sinn Fein have become their mirror image.
This ‘they are both as bad as each other’ narrative has been used many times in the media but it doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. In what areas do you think SF should compromise: legacy issues, flags and emblems, language rights, gay rights, education, parades, welfare, Brexit, RHI? I can’t see much room for them to manouver. Are you suggesting that we kick these issues further down the road and forget about the people whose lives are being ruined because of them?
Freddie
I believe there are soft unionists in the sense that not all who are in favour of the union support the DUP..In fact I know a few.
For starters there is nearly 50% of the population who do not vote. Some of them must be unionists.
But I agree it will be demographics that do it in the end as would have happened regardless of Sinn Fein, in my view.
So do you think we should have tolerated BSpecials, discrimination, pogroms, and cultural obliteration? In a gerrymandered system who was going to bring in the legislation for a border poll? I think that if we had just waited the nationalist people of the north would have been such poor cretons that they would have no longer sought a united ireland.
Spot on Colmán.
Colmán
I was specifically referring to post GFA.
If we have inched closer to a United Ireland since then it is hardly down to Sinn Fein.
The single most significant factor is the changing demographics
Or are you contending that Sinn Fein has won over former unionists to the cause?
No but i don’t think many Unionists soft or otherwise are willing to change their minds just now. They see Dublin as a threat and they are proud that they have their own country. It is a tight situation. I don’t believe that the SDLP were ever interested in a united Ireland. So i think we are better off with a party that are at least discussing the issue and trying to do something to achieve it.
Colmán
How have they brought it closer since the GFA?
If you agree they have not won over any unionists then all they have done is take votes from the SDLP. People who would have voted yes in a order poll anyway.
You are forgetting about the rest of the country Giordano. A UI is now on the agenda for every major party in the South. We have to first convince Irish people of the virtues of a UI before we can convince people that don’t even see themselves as Irish. I think SFs presence in Leinster House is helping with this. Regarding changing Unionists into Nationalists I dont know if that is possible.
Colmán
Absolutely the more people are persuaded the better.
But it still comes down to a referendum to be called by a British Secretary of State.as agreed by Sinn Fein in the GFA.
I do not see how SF have brought that referendum any closer.
On the other hand demographics are slowly making it more likely and that would have been the case without Sinn Fein.
Colmán
Just to add to my point;
in 2001 the combined vote for SF and the SDLP was 42.7%
in 2017 the combined vote for SF and SDLP was 41.2%.
That does not suggest they have made a significant difference in that time.
This is true there has been a drop in the combined nationalist vote 345257 in 2001 vs 334334 in 2017. Meanwhile the Alliance has gained 35554 and one could imagine that some of those votes went to PBP and the Greens. Immigration and political appathy may also be a factor. And up until this year politics here became really boring. Could some Unionists have also being tactically voting for the SDLP I’m sure this was the case in Derry and South Down. I’m not sure that they would automatically vote for a United Ireland at any rate. I think if we are to convince ‘soft unionists’ of the benifits of a United Ireland the changes need to happen in the south. A better HSE and more money for Education and mental health might help.
But we didn’t tolerate these wrongs.
We mobilised and eventually created an opportunity for inclusion through the GFA.
Although we were wronged in the past continuous Unionist bashing will never achieve an agreed Ireland. The merry go round will continue until accommodation is reached by all sides.Let us learn from our past not repeat it.
Yes, but it works both ways. Demonising Irish republicanism(or those labelled as such) and demanding that they must atone for their ‘sins’ so ‘we can all get along’ has got us to where we are today. Nationalists of a certain ilk joined in on that demonisation and thus gave encouragment for unionism to carry on demanding atonement. I would also say telling unionism that they had won and that irish militant republicanism had surrendered also encouraged unionism not to seek a way for all to get on. I.e their mantra seems to be ‘we can all get along but republicans not allowed, or at least repent first’.
Btw, looking at the numbers that voted for the DUP I would say points to the stark fact that in spite of all the compromises, when it comes to really wanting ‘northern Ireland’ to get a long, unionists will not want to get a long too much if it means, say, a shinner being first minister? So what does that tell you. It tells me that we all can get along as long as unionists remain top dog. A kind of croppies lie down 2017.
Perhaps nationalism should start telling unionism what they are doing/did wrong instead of ignoring their wrongdoing? Not pointing out their faults won’t make them change their ways, in fact it only encourages them.
Martin ,where the hell have you been living this ten years with your “SF not interested in compromise”. bullshit.Martin M cGuinness stretched his base to the limit in his outreach to unionism and was treated withcontempt by what are little more than a bunch of orange supremacists.
Gio , pick a horse in the race ! Either demographics are going to bring us a United Ireland ….or Unionists need to be persuaded by Sinn Féin ( who apparently serve no useful purpose ) to join us in creating it .
I am a republican and no one could ever persuade me to become British ….yes I’m under UK dominance at the moment but vehemently against my will. I doubt if I could persuade any unionist to become Irish ,……I could however persuade non-catholics , politically aligned to Britain , and people reasonably content with the present status quo of the benefits and a better future in a UI
Eolach
So you have picked your horse and it is demographics?
That tallies with my argument that SF have not made any significant difference in the desire for a united Ireland in the North, since the GFA.
Gio , gambling is not for winners. We wouldn’t be where we are today without the sacrifices of the Republican movement…. IRA and Sinn Féin combined and especially the people who support us… then and now….. anyone can pontificate and speculate with ifs and buts ,
but reality taught us and continues to teach us that Unionism is too wedded to ignorance and intolerance to ever be a progressive political force in Ireland . As I stated earlier….. certain people can be convinced of the merits of a UI , unfortunately others are beyond even joining the majority of humanity in the 21st century…. they will have to accept the democratic vote
that they are so fond of espousing or find another homeland….. if anyone , (after the belated but welcomed education of the British public ), would accept them!
Eolach
Let’s not get into the sacrifices the IRA made. How many innocent lives did they choose to sacrifice?
I am talking about since the GFA.
What have SF (and indeed the SDLP) done since then to persuade anyone in the North to support their goal of a United Ireland?
Demographics would have done the job even if they had all gone into retirement in 1998.
Ok, we’ll park the violence and concentrate on post GFA….. The IRA, as required by the agreement decommissioned their weapons…..the only fighting force/ army involved to do so ….. everyone else renegaded …..Britain,of course, being the master of treachery and duplicity not only maintained it’s covert operations but strengthened them, so much for not having any strategic or any other sort of interest. All the loyalist paramilitaries ( I’ll not exhaust the English alphabet) are still active ,murdering at will… without censure . Sinn Féin tried and tried to introduce an unknown quantity to Unionism…. equality… thrown back continually until the futility was recognised….. However we are here against all the odds …. the only all- Ireland party and have representitives ,not only in every county in Ireland, but in Britain and Europe as well. We have massive support for our objectives throughout the world and you question our achievements…… no explanation needed….. we will achieve our objectives, and carry the people with us…
Eolach
Objectives are not achievements
In 2001 the combined vote for SF and the SDLP was 42.7%
In 2017 the combined vote for SF and SDLP was 41.2%.
Who have they persuaded?
Sadly the days of endeavouring to ‘persuade’ unionism is over I fear. The DUP increased their vote share after unsubtly aligning themselves to the UDA. Demographics is the only way to a reunited Ireland. But I truly believe that when that day comes, Nationalism will take the high moral ground and show unionists the sort of respect they have never been shown themselves. They go low, we go high. It’s the only way to a civilised society.
I covered the ‘persuasion’ idea a couple of blogs back ,Gio. What I’m saying is that Sinn Féin are ready and waiting….is there anyone else ? If SF had not appeared do you honestly believe anything would have changed ? The SDLP were a pro-British “nationalist” party ,solely interested in an easy money-making career with a lucrative pension….they had no interest in the reunification of our countr Without Sinn Féin,. would there even be talk of a UI ,Acht na Gaeilge ?,Border Poll ? etc etc As for the parties in the 26 …..they have forgotten about us for 100 y years and are only recently making mumblings about a UI because of the advancing tide of support for SF and the threat that Brexit may end their gravy train…..I don’t understand how you fail to realize this as a massive achievement….basically without the IRA campaign and the emergence of Sinn Féin ,the monolithic rule of Unionism would have continued unchanged to the present day ( albeit there may have been token but minor reforms )
Eolach
“If SF had not appeared do you honestly believe anything would have changed ?”
That is my point.
In terms of support for nationalist/republican parties nothing has changed. After 20 years of outreach and SF supposedly trying to act as persuaders the numbers have not changed.
They have made progress in the South yes but we both know that a border poll will be based on the numbers in the North. Once again that looks like it will be down to demographics not Sinn Fein.
There are soft unionists – they vote for Alliance or don’t vote. And there are plenty of Catholic unionists. They don’t vote for unionist parties, but when polling is carried out asking “Do you want a united Ireland?” they say “no”. Which is why I cannot understand SF pushing for a border poll. The result would be embarrassing.
You’re missing the point Gio, or perhaps you’e just being mischevious….some people you’ll never persuade …..wasted energy and effort. Demographics ,yes, will get us the required numbers but those numbers are immaterial without the desire for reunification….that is where Sinn Féin is vital…..we have seen how lethargy and apathy set in ,in the 26…..a result of cronyism , nepotism and a century of ” I’m alright Jack”….you just paddle your own canoe !
Eolach
With respect I think you are missing my point.
Demographics will presumably get us to 50% +1 at some point. Sinn Fein have failed as far as I can see to hasten us towards that number
As to the desire for reunification are you telling me that after 800 years under the British jackboot and in recent times the unionist ‘reign of terror’ (according to Joe) that nationalists are not filled with desire for a united Ireland?
Anyway it is an academic point now so let us not go round in circles anymore.
Happy to agree to differ on this one.