Voting on a soft day (for adults only)

As I type this it’s a grey day out there. A soft rain is falling (unlike Bob Dylan’s famous Hard Rain) and things generally are getting a slow but cumulative drenching. It’s the kind of day where you might be tempted to stay indoors  and read a book or watch the telly or look through summer holiday sites about sunnier places.

But hunkering down and making another cup of tea isn’t an option today. Because today you can make history. So can I. So can anyone who has registered as a voter.  If you’re a political activist, you’ll need no prompting to get you down to the voting centre. If you’ve always voted and are a creature of habit, you’ll very likely walk the walk and make your mark. But if you’re part of the 35% who regularly can’t be bothered voting or believe no party deserves your vote, you’ll be checking the TV schedules and maybe sending a few emails to tell friends to tell them how fed up you are with all these damned elections.

If you’re one of this last group, let me offer a small number of reasons why you might want to break through the lethargy.

  1. Your estimation that none of the candidates on offer deserve your vote may indeed be accurate: they may all be a shower of tossers. But if you don’t put your X beside one of these tossers, someone else will. I don’t mean that someone will pretend to be you and vote in your place. I mean  that if you don’t vote, you’re passing the choice of who gets elected into the hands of others. You’re as good as saying to these others “Do what you like with me over the next five years”.  Do you enjoy passing control to others?
  2. You may feel that ‘None of the above’ applies, but almost certainly there’ll be some of the above who you think will be even more ghastly than the rest. There’s only one way you can increase the chances of Ghastly Person not being elected, and that’s to walk the walk and put your mark beside somebody else.
  3. You’re a big boy or girl now. You know how to use the toilet, you have a job or had a job or would like a job. You don’t tend to  throw yourself on the floor and burst into tears when thing don’t go as you’d like them to. You know how to feed yourself, wash yourself, how to read and write and count. One of the advantages of being all growed up is that fewer people tell you what to do and what not to do – you make more decisions for yourself. You know how to talk and walk. As a big boy or girl you likewise have the privilege/duty today of helping decide who’s going to be in charge of shaping all our futures. Yes, you’re only one; but every single person who votes today could say that. Man/woman up. Walk the walk and make the mark.

I know there are constituencies where the result looks a foregone conclusion. But no constituency is a foregone conclusion: if nobody voted, no candidate would get elected. But a lot of people will vote, which means the result in that apparently foregone-conclusion constituency is in their hands. And yours.

Marginal constituencies, however, deserve particular attention: Fermanagh/South Tyrone,  North Belfast, Foyle, South Belfast, even Upper Bann – in those constituencies the race is going to be something between really close and tighter than a snake’s arse. We saw in 2010 how F/ST came down to four  votes – a carload. If you’re in one of those constituencies, you really really should be walking the walk through the soft rain today, making your mark and almost certainly making the difference.

As Churchill said, democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the rest.

So put down the book, switch off the telly and walk the walk before it’s too late. You’ll be glad you did.

44 Responses to Voting on a soft day (for adults only)

  1. Scott Rutherford June 8, 2017 at 8:24 am #

    My predictions

    F/ST-SF
    Foyle-SDLP
    NB-DUP
    EB-Alliance
    SB-DUP
    SA-DUP
    SD-SF

    Saying that I’ve got a woeful track record so I wouldn’t put any money on it.

  2. Pointis June 8, 2017 at 8:28 am #

    I think you may have forgotten to mention South Down as being a very close run thing!

    • Scott Rutherford June 8, 2017 at 8:33 am #

      I did mention it Pointis I called it for SF. It’s the surprise constituency of the election as it’s not normally a marginal.

      • Pointis June 8, 2017 at 10:13 am #

        I know Scott. I was writing my response to Jude’s blog and your submission wasn’t up at that time. Our submissions must have passed each other like ships in the night.

        I would agree with you that previously the South Down constituency had not featured as in contention as it had a significant SDLP majority but I believe the situation has changed significantly in the last 2 years and a couple of weeks ago Paddy Power had Chris Hazzard of Sinn Féin as favourite to win at 6/4 with Margaret Richie evens.

        It all makes for a very exciting contest as the polls do not always reflect the significant numbers of unionists who now tactically vote for the SDLP because of lack of a viable unionist choice and in order to stymie Sinn Féin.

  3. Sean McIvor June 8, 2017 at 8:38 am #

    I don’t vote. The reason is I do not recognise the legitimacy of the Northern statelet. I am n abstentionist voter. It is a principled stance and is my right. At the same time I have no problems with others who chose to vote.

    • TheHist June 8, 2017 at 10:43 am #

      It is totally your right, Sean. It may well be a “principled stance” but not voting actually achieves nothing and in actual fact allows the status quo, to continue. The Northern statelet will remain surely, if people like you don’t vote? The only way reasonable way to change the status quo is democratic, electoral politics and voting, I believe, remains at the core of this. Out of interest, would voting Sinn Fein not allow you to continue your absentionist stance seeing as they don’t take their seats at Westminster ?

    • boondock June 8, 2017 at 12:12 pm #

      The northern statelet can only come to an end now through a vote so its better to vote wisely than to just ignore it.

  4. giordanobruno June 8, 2017 at 8:52 am #

    The usual depressing bickering over the past is hardly going to persuade any previous non voters to support either of the big two.
    I will drag myself out to make a mark sometime despite knowing it will not affect the outcome since I will not vote for Finucane or Dodds.

    • Pointis June 8, 2017 at 10:32 am #

      If your voting preference is not going to have an effect on the outcome, why not flick a coin and if it comes up heads vote for the crown/ Dodds and if it comes up tails vote for the rebels/ Finucane. At least you will be affecting the outcome.

      If Dodds won by a single vote and you voted for him you would able to secretly gloat at Jude that you had got one up on him!

      If Finucane won and you voted for him you wouldn’t feel as bad the next time Nationalists were being cleared of their own streets in North Belfast to facilitate a Loyalist show of bigotry because you would be able to tell yourself you showed your opposition to such injustice by voting for John Finucane.

      Think smart!

      • giordanobruno June 8, 2017 at 12:26 pm #

        Pointis
        Yes but then the next time some Shinner tries to justify something like the Shnkill bomb I am going to feel sick about voting for them.
        You can see the dilemma

        • Pointis June 8, 2017 at 3:28 pm #

          Don’t worry about it, that will never happen!

  5. fiosrach June 8, 2017 at 10:18 am #

    All those parties that tip a nod to the Gaeilge use ‘Vótail X or Y’. This Béarlachais is an abomination and an obvious crib from our master’s tongue. The proper word to use is ‘Roghnaigh’ meaning ‘choose’ which makes a lot more sense and is another reason to vote. If we all abstain – a reasonable position – then some jackanapes would stand up in the British Parliament and say that the six counties was 100% unionist.

    • Jude Collins June 8, 2017 at 12:22 pm #

      Um – fiosrach – from Ó Dónaill’s Foclóir Gaeilge – Béarla….

      file:///Users/judecollins/Desktop/IMG_2630.jpg

      • fiosrach June 8, 2017 at 1:48 pm #

        You’re one of the ” Bhí mé ag reversáil an tractor ag an dump agus bhí mo wife ag ag traveláil liom” brigade, jude?. There is no letter v in the Irish alphabet. We don’t have to slavishly copy everything the Anglophones do.

        “Tá mo chroi-se réabtha in a mhíle céad cuid
        Is gan balsam fhéin ann a d’fhóireadh dom’phian
        Nuair a chluinim an Ghaeilge uile a thréigbheáil
        A’s caismirt Bhéarla i mbéal gach aoin”

        • fiosrach June 8, 2017 at 2:01 pm #

          …… your ref tells me access is denied.

          • Colmán June 8, 2017 at 2:12 pm #

            Sílim go bhfuil tú ag dul thar fóir a Fhiosrach: Béarla = vote; Gaeilge = vótáil; Spáinnis = vota; Francais = votez; Gaeilge na hAlban = bhòtadh

            Tig an focal ón Laidin:

            from Latin votum “a vow, wish, promise to a god, solemn pledge, dedication,” noun use of neuter of votus, past participle of vovere “to promise, dedicate” (see vow (n.)). Meaning “totality of voters of a certain class or type” is from 1888.

            Agus bhí focal ó vota na Laidine in úsáid sa tSean-Ghaeilge chomh maith:

            móit, móid

            http://dil.ie/32481

          • Colmán June 8, 2017 at 2:18 pm #

            Agus tá sé fós in úsáid

            http://www.teanglann.ie/ga/fgb/m%c3%b3id_

          • fiosrach June 8, 2017 at 2:42 pm #

            Are we mixing up vows and votes here? I have no gripe with ‘faoi mhóid bheith saor’ but pull out your Dinneen and note that there are no words starting with ‘v’. It is immaterial if a word starting with v is used in Russia or Thailand, there is no ‘v’ in the Irish alphabet. Gaeilge na hAlban dictionary gives ‘guth-taghaidh’ or ‘bhòt’. No letter v. The Caighdean carries no weight with me.:-)

          • Colmán June 8, 2017 at 3:32 pm #

            Tig ‘vow’, ‘vote’ agus ‘móid’ uilig ó ‘vota’ na Laidine – bhí ‘uóid’ sa tSean-Ghaeilge fosta (iarracht ar ‘v’ is dócha): http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=vow

            Glacadh ‘v’ isteach sa Ghaeilge sna seascaidí/seachtóidí agus sílim féin gur maith ann é – cuir ceist ar Éamonn Ó Cuív faoi. Is i bhfocail iasachta don chuid is mó atá sé agus úsáidtear go forleathan é. Níl maith ar bith ann a bheith ag gearán le foghlaimeoir Gaeilge as a bheith ag úsáid focail iasachta nuair atá an focal céanna sna foclóirí uilig, sna meáin uilig, ar na póstaeirí uilig, ar na páipéir bhallóide uilig agus ag na cainteoirí dúchais Gaeilge uilig sa chaint agus sa scríobh.

            Ach sin uilig ráite tuigim cad chuige nach maith leat féin é agus ba ghnách go mbíodh an tuairim céanna agam ach ní miste liom focail agus fiú litreacha iasachta níos mó, ar nós: zú, vóta, karate.

          • fiosrach June 8, 2017 at 3:57 pm #

            Má tá tú ag iarraidh focal a fháil ar iasacht ,déan ê gan athrú ar bith. Beidh a fhios ag achan duine go bhfuil sé ar iasacht go dtí go dtig linn focal ceart a chumadh. Níl muid ag caint fa ulster Scots anseo. The old sneer was that Irish was an agricultural language and incapable of coping with modern terms.

          • Colmán June 8, 2017 at 4:26 pm #

            B’fhéidir – cosúil le fridge, bicycle. Ní miste liom bealach amháin nó eile. Ach tá an teanga lom lán d’focail iasachta cheana a rinneadh Gaelú orthu: clann (<planda); Eaglais (eglesia); muintear (< monasterium); brístí (breeches); stocaí (<stockings); bád (<bátr) srl. srl. Proisis nádúrtha. Cib é sílim gur ag vóta/vótáil a bheidh an buaidh amach anseo in ainneoin ár gcuid cainte.

          • fiosrach June 8, 2017 at 4:36 pm #

            Glacaim, ach is cúis éadochais domh bheith ag éisteacht le a native speaker agus gach dara focal I mBéarla.

    • Mark June 8, 2017 at 4:10 pm #

      Is misé leis Colmán, despite the boul Eamon being a personal friend.
      I did not appreciate the erection of Hunger Striker posters alongside the election posters regardless of the time of year nor the fact that it is not, per the posters, 35 years since the hunger strike, Diane Abbott must be working the SBSF calculator.

      • fiosrach June 8, 2017 at 4:27 pm #

        Eh?

  6. Brian Patterson June 8, 2017 at 10:19 am #

    Scott I have my doubts S to whether SF will win South Down. (Which, incidentally is not really South Down) East Down is a hotbed of Hibernianism And while Margaret Ritchie’s vote fell in the assembly election where everyone was taking their seat, it held up very well in the 2015 Westminster election. But like you, Scott I have poor form in predictions. Bookies, however are seldom wrong. Check out their odds.

    • Pointis June 8, 2017 at 11:28 am #

      I would agree the South Down constituency is a strange one because up until relatively recently 1986 the seat was held by the UUP in the guise of “rivers of blood” Enoch Powell. The SDLP first captured the seat in 1987 and the fate of the unionist vote showed a fast and terminal decline.
      The fortunes of the SDLP since its high point in 1997 when it had approximately 53% of the vote has shown a steady decline to the point where in 2015 Margaret Richie’s vote fell by more than 6 points to 42.3% from 2010 where it was 48.5%. Sinn Féin’s vote has remained fairly stubbornly stable from 2010 – 2015 at 28.5%.

      The things which will be the main deciding factors which will determine whether Sinn Féin can take this seat from SDLP are

      A new perception that Sinn Féin have a very good chance of unseating the SDLP because of their electoral success since Martin McGuinness died.
      The belief that Sinn Féin are a party of government and attract the support of the overwhelming majority of Nationalists in the North and attracts support from mainstream and influential individuals within the Nationalist community.
      Finally the size of the unionist tactical vote which the SDLP can expect to attract.

      A 13.7% swing to Sinn Féin seems an impossibility but I think it will be awfully close!

      I have no doubt that if there is still voting for Westminister here in the future that SDLP domination will eventually go and when it does it will be like the Dodo it will be gone forever!

      • boondock June 8, 2017 at 12:08 pm #

        Ritchie is poor the only reason Sf didnt make any progress over the years was because Ruane was even worse. Now SF have an ok candidate I expect a number of wavering voters to switch to SF. There is nothing to lose either as there is no threat at all of a Unionist coming through the middle. Ritchie could be toast

  7. boondock June 8, 2017 at 10:52 am #

    If I could vote in all the tight constituencies
    NB – Finucane
    SB – McDonnell
    EB – Long
    Foyle – Durkan
    SD – Hazzard
    UB – O Dowd
    SA – would have gone for Kinahan but he has put his foot in it a few times and Girvan is no McCrea so prob give Lynch the vote
    FST – Gildernew

    • Eamon June 8, 2017 at 1:01 pm #

      Boobdock, why bother with McDonnell in SB? What has he done for South Belfast through the seat is the HOC is attends 25% of the time and takes nearly £300,000 for doing so. On another article on this website it was pointed out that he used tax payers money to pay for a house which he now rents out and takes in £10,000 a year in rental and at the same time he still claims yet more expenses for accommodation in hotels. Why should he get this money at the same time nurses and teachers are being effectively given a pay cut.

      • boondock June 8, 2017 at 2:20 pm #

        Well Mom isnt going to win no matter how much he fibs about the numbers so that leaves us with McDonnell or Pengelly so its a no brainer really

        • Scott Rutherford June 8, 2017 at 2:29 pm #

          Indeed boondock. South Belfast should be a DUP pick up in my opinion. McDonnell won with less than a thousand votes last time so its already extremely marginal.

          Máirtín Ó Muilleoir who is a excellent candidate and would have made a better northern leader of SF in my opinion will cut into McDonnells lead and without Bob Stoker from UKIP running (who got 1900 votes last time) I think Emma Little Pengelly will win.

          We will see soon enough anyway.

          • Pointis June 8, 2017 at 3:23 pm #

            Again Scott a fair analysis. If McDonnell did manage to retain the seat and it would be seat of the trousers stuff. I think it is fairly obvious that after SDLP spurned Sinn Fein’s offer on agreed candidates in a number of marginals that Sinn Fein took the strategic decision to burn them in South Belfast. Once unseated they will never regain the seat and Sinn Fein will be the dominant nationalist party in the constituency. I think we have seen the end of SDLP dominance in SB.

          • Boondock June 8, 2017 at 6:15 pm #

            Well under the new boundaries it will be overwhelming SF anyway with the leftovers going into east Belfast to give alliance a big help

  8. Sherdy June 8, 2017 at 1:04 pm #

    I had been considering my options, and had the option of voting for Sinn Fein’s Paul Maskey.
    But last night I was watching the news and saw his uncle Alex at Messines in France, in support of the British army who he claimed to have been fighting against all during the troubles.
    So I guess that’s one choice less for me!

    • TheHist June 8, 2017 at 5:22 pm #

      Sherdy, I think your comment on Maskey’s attendance at Messines is very simplistic and unfair – why shouldn’t Alex Maskey attend an event commentating the Battle of Messines? Where many Irish Nationalist of the 16th Irish Division fought and died, not in the name of Britain or the British Army, but in the name of Ireland and in pursuit of Home Rule? Encouraged to fight in a War by the Irish Nationalist leader, John Redmond. I commend Alex Maskey for attending this event. For too long the British and Unionists have claimed WW1 as their history, as belonging to them. It’s not. Events like Messines, for me, illustrates the complexity of our history and the need to not only understand it but look at it in the correct context. Messines saw the coming together of the 36th Ulster Division and 16th Irish, where religion, culture, identity and difference meant nothing, life, human sacrifice and comradeship meant more – I think Messines is an inspiration for us as a divided society and an example of how we should and why we should want to move on.

  9. RJC June 8, 2017 at 1:24 pm #

    Few things reflect the ridiculousness of the continued existence of this sorry statelet than a Westminster election. In a battle between Labour and the Tories, remind me again how we’re ‘an integral part of the Union’?

    That said, I’m sure the people of Old Bexley and Sidcup have our best interests at heart.

    • PaulG June 8, 2017 at 5:30 pm #

      Sherdy,
      There’s plenty of good Irish Nationalists buried there. Some duped along with Redmond, others left with no choice when poverty and TB were killing their kids at home.
      I’ve a great grandfather made it back (and others who didn’t) and joined the IRA for the War of Independence.
      Let’s not let the Brits pretend those young Irish men were there to propagate the Empire.
      Let SF go there to claim our dead, But next time have them make it clear it’s for that reason and NOT bridge-building with the UVF in uniform and NOT giving cover to poppy wearing recruiting Sergents looking to form the next generation of British oppressors of some weak and impoverished population.

  10. fiosrach June 8, 2017 at 3:33 pm #

    Pissing in FST now. This will tell the men from the boys. Voted in DG at 2pm. Were only ones there. Weather was dry then.

  11. Ryan June 8, 2017 at 5:45 pm #

    My prediction:

    F/ST = Sinn Fein
    SB = SDLP
    EB = Alliance (thanks to split Unionist vote)
    NB = DUP (Sinn Fein vote increased)
    SD = SDLP

    I think the weather will have scared off some voters but overall we’re hearing that the turnout has been big.

    At any other election i’d be more focused on seats here in the North but I’m more keen on seeing how Labour do in Britain. A hung parliament is what some polls are suggesting. Is there a chance we could see Sinn Fein taking their seats, especially if it means a Labour Government? You can imagine the reaction from the UK/Irish media if Sinn Fein were propping up Jeremy in Government LOL

    • TheHist June 8, 2017 at 6:35 pm #

      Ryan – where are you hearing the turnout is big? Went to polling stations in NB and WB and both seemed very quiet.

      • Scott Rutherford June 8, 2017 at 7:17 pm #

        Quiet is what I’ve heard also. Probably a combination of the Rain and election fatigue.

  12. Scott Rutherford June 8, 2017 at 9:07 pm #

    Flip that’s some exit poll. If it’s accurate NI MP’s will become very relevant.

    • giordanobruno June 8, 2017 at 9:15 pm #

      Scott
      Flipping flip!

  13. Gaz June 8, 2017 at 9:46 pm #

    Jude-its Paul Girvan not Paul Given who is DUP candidate in South Antrim-similar name I grant you but different person-im referring to your tweet round 4pm today