‘Northerners are a hard-headed lot’ – that’s the sort of lazy thinking that abounds in the south about the north. Interestingly, recent polling suggests just the opposite. It’s the southerners who are up for driving a hard bargain.
At least, according to the North and South research project which has been polling opinions – yep – North and South for the last three years. More than 1,000 voters at multiple points across both jurisdictions were consulted.
And what did they find? Well, a majority of respondents in NEI (56 per cent), including an overwhelming majority of voters from a Protestant background (73 per cent), want to see specific rules in a possible future united Ireland that would require the Government to include a party from a British unionist background.
Before you shout “But sure that’s the northerners digging in their heels again – what are you talking about?” Just the fact that nearly two southern voters out of every three were against any such arrangement in a future UI.
And the pattern keeps repeating. More than seven in 10 voters from a Protestant background in the North (71 per cent) agree that at least two of the 15 Cabinet ministers should be allocated to a unionist party in a future all-Ireland government, with more than half (53 per cent) of all Northern voters supporting the idea.
But once again, the South says no: just 29 per cent agree with that arrangement, with 45 per cent disagreeing (16 per cent neither agreeing nor disagreeing).
All sorts of UI models were suggested. They included: an extension of the current southern model; an extension of the current northern model; an “inclusive coalition” model (where all parties that passed a minimum threshold of seats have a right to be part of the Government); the “quota” model, where two Cabinet seats would be reserved for unionists; and the “territorial” model, which would guarantee parties from Northern Ireland would have representation in Government.
There’s two ways you could respond to this. One, is that there’s so little agreement, it confirms the case for two separate states on this island. Two, it shows the kind of hurdles that will face those striving for a UI.
Put me in the second category. It’s this establishment of just where we are, and what are the challenges and obstacles ahead, that is needed. Now we need to sit down and plan the way ahead, given these brutal facts. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.
Hi Jude, two things automatically struck me by the findings of that survey. The fact of so many from the south appear so entrenched and not willing to budge an inch, suggests a lack of understanding and knowledge of what is involved. Why? because the discussion has not yet begun in the south, as opposed to the north where it has for some time already, if only beneath the surface.
What’s the remedy for that? to start talking about it in the south. Micheal Martin might want to start remembering that the south is part of his ‘Shared Island’ project, so start sharing information now!
The other concern expressed about northern representation being a necessity in the new national parliament. Given that the north represents around 20% of the population on the island anyway, wont that give or take an equal percentage of parliamentary seats.