‘Assembly Election 2017: The Case for British Withdrawal’ by Donal Lavery

“You claim to be a Majority,
Well You know that’s a lie.
You really are a Minority,
On this sweet Emerald Isle.”
(Lyrics from the song “Bloody Sunday” by John Lennon)

Mrs. Foster predicted herself that this election, in the aftermath of the RHI debacle, would be “brutal” and she has lived to see her worst fears politically realised. For the first time since the inception of the Orange state there is no Unionist majority in place, not in the parliament and not among the electorate. A decisive shift of power has occurred not even a year after Arlene obtained a stunning electoral result. Big names in Unionism are now confined to the state pension system and dole offices.

But the most important fact from this election has been the mass mobilisation of the nationalist electorate, and the systematic motivation of hearts and minds among the nationalist people. People have been politicised by recent events in a way not seen before, turning up to vote in droves. When analysing the result, remember that the boundaries set up here by the British Government post-1998 were always inclined to yield Unionism a slight majority – There are far more seats than our proportionate size would otherwise demand (in comparison to Scotland and Wales).

But now that the DUP have no outright veto over legislative issues, the prospect arises not just of progressive measures being taken on issues of equality but that the national question can finally be debated. If there was a vote in the near future on whether to hold a border poll on reunification, it is obvious a petition of concern would be deployed by the Unionist parties. But fortunately for us all, this question isn’t confined to the parameters of their beloved Orange statelet And if a majority of MLA’s voted for it, even with a petition of concern being used, then a Sinn Fein team would have a very strong hand to play in direct negotiations with the Westminster Government. The real question is whether the people in the Alliance Party (and there are some) are prepared to stand up and be counted upon in any vote to end the partition and mutilation of our country or to continue within a system where the Unionists treat them like dirt.

Both the Irish and American administrations would be obliged to pressure any British Government into facilitating that eventuality, given the changed political landscape – because such a vote would be decided by the public and not a tiny pro-Brit power clique at Stormont. Arlene Foster herself warned of this. And despite her apparently close relations with the Tories, she knows that a return to Direct Rule would result in British Ministers giving into Shinner demands in order to keep republicans at peace. Remember also, that all of the things which haunt the Unionist psyche were imposed under Direct Rule by sovereign British Governments (Conservative and Labour) – from disbanding the B Specials to enforcing mandatory coalition. Betrayal after all, is a dish best served cold.

However, the most important things facing the new Sinn Fein leader have to be forcing the Unionists into the century in which we live, with an agreed new set of standards and approach; And secondly, holding onto and enhancing the levels of support she received at this election. Nothing can be taken for granted, as the chess players within Unionism will already have began a political “rethink” on how best to regain lost ground – including conceding to things never before deemed likely.

Authoritatively, Michelle O’Neill is in a very strong position indeed as things presently stand – She faced down a challenge from what some pundits thought was a resurgent SDLP, robbing them of victories in their heartland; As well as having crushed any prospect that People Before Profit (who lost thousands of votes) could eat into Sinn Fein support. Voters resonated well with her pleasant approach and down-to-Earth style; and now Mr. Eastwood may be in for a proverbial “Night of the Long Knives” type political assassination by his party colleagues. Eamonn McCann has been jettisoned into forced retirement by actual republican candidates, after proving a maverick disappointment.

I spoke about all these developments with a taxi driver today. He said to me that he feared that once the border poll is triggered, any result in favour of reunification would never be accepted by hardline militant Loyalists. Bare in mind that even if the first border poll fails, there has to be another every six years until unity is decided upon. If we don’t win first time round then we’ll catch them by the whiskers within a short period of national revitalisation. For the Loyalists, having no armed or financial backing from the British state, would be in no such position to wage a campaign of bloodshed, particularly on an island where they make up a tiny section of the population. The Unionist middle-class, in seeking to preserve their bourgeois propertied interests, would advocate for the best possible deal within a united Ireland – namely a Federal Republic offering safeguards as rights.

-Conclusively, the defining feature of these new circumstances remains this; We (nationalists and republicans) only have to be lucky once, You (unionists and loyalists) have to keep being lucky all the time. So settle not for a bigger slice in the short term, but rather the entire bakery!