Ciaran Cairns tweets as @DerryAsISeeIt and blogs at derryasiseeit.com
Following the most historical election since the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 and possibly since 1921, we have witnessed the resurgence of Nationalism and the end to Unionist majority for the first time in 100 years.
The electorate has been energised by the Renewable Heating Initiative (RHI) and the arrogance of DUP leader Arlene Foster. Apathy has been reduced and Sinn Fein & Nationalism have been handed the opportunity to make a solid impact with 27 seats, a total of 224,245 votes, to level the political playing field.
The SDLP have also held their vote, but still won’t commit to Government, mainly because they would be seen as a junior partner to a strong SF; is this any better than a joint partner in Opposition? This is where Colum Eastwood’s leadership has to come into play. The SDLP have to decide if they will stick or twist; will the SDLP leadership put Nationalism and equality before self preservation?
The DUP are on a sticky wicket. The DUP want to make a deal and ensure that they continue their programme of Unionist Government and represent their electorate, but is this possible for the worst leader in DUP history?
Ms Foster has taken the DUP juggernaut and allowed the wheels to come off in eight months. Unionist dominance has fallen due to RHI and her tone when addressing genuine Nationalist concerns. Her confidence was replaced by arrogance, and in turn her mandate reduced by the electorate.
Arlene Foster has gotten the dreaded vote of confidence from the board. Gavin Robinson told the Nolan Show on BBC 5Live that the DUP won’t put “any impediments” in the way of negotiations; has Arlene Foster now become an impediment within the DUP?
The DUP have also lost their Petition of Concern (PoC) due to the failure to secure 30 seats in the Assembly. The DUP relied on the PoC to push their agenda through the Executive and is argued that it was used to deny others theirs; is losing this piece of power Ms Foster’s biggest failure in the eyes of her opponents in the DUP? Let’s be honest, marriage equality is just around the corner..
This election also has another strand within our society. Dissident Republicans set out to undermine the democratic process by appealing to the electorate to “Smash Stormont” and stay away from the ballot boxes to show support for their campaign; this failed miserably. The electorate came out in droves. The turnout increased at least by 10.3% in every constituency and an overall turnout of 64.78%, up from 54.9% in 2016; can we look at this election as another rejection for dissidents?
This election has also put the spotlight on Brexit and negotiations. Essentially, the Executive is now an anti-Brexit collective, and with the Irish Government keen to pass some responsibility to the Executive (due to an impending election and scandals) adds more pressure to Unionism, and puts Nationalism in the spotlight as negotiators with their electorate firmly behind them; will this be a bargaining chip in the negotiations ahead?
We have a ring-side seat in witnessing the shaping of a new Ireland and a new Europe. We are witnessing the rise of Sinn Fein and Nationalism. We are witnessing the demise of Unionism and possibly the first steps of a unified people in Ireland based on policies and pure politics; but this all hinges on delivery. The weeks and months ahead are crucial for all involved, and most of all the electorate.
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